2022 Fearless 20: VERDICT

Oklahoma's 2022 season started off with promise, and before it kicked off had so much more. Obviously things didn't go according to play - did that play into or out of the hands of this year's Fearless 20? We take a look at the things co-publisher Josh McCuistion was thinking before the year and how they ended up playing out for 'team 128' in Norman.

Preseason Breakdown: Well, this prediction was made before the news emerged that Barnes is still healing up and isn't quite full go for the Sooners yet. But, alas the show goes on and Barnes is a player who probably has the most potential of any back on the roster. The freshman from Las Vegas will take time to ease into things but his talent is undeniable and he may get there by popping some of the longer runs of the year for Oklahoma.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: I got this started off right with a prediction that felt awfully safe to me when it was made. Barnes was a bit up and down - a fair reality for a freshman - but capped the season off with his biggest performance of the year.

Preseason Breakdown: 1,000 yard receivers were once something of a birth right for Sooners. From 2008-2019, 10 receivers passed the threshold but since 2019 not one receiver has hit that mark. Now obviously that's just two seasons but it's been since 2012-2014 that Oklahoma has gone three straight seasons without a 1,000 yard receiver. In 2022 Marvin Mims will avoid that ugly triple from happening again thanks in part to a large number of big plays from Jeff Lebby's offense.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: I've been predicting this, or the exact opposite, for several years now so it's nice to feel this one come to light and it's also worth nothing how many yards and catches Mims left on the field with both some overthrows as well as some

Preseason Breakdown: Alright, well time to bring some balance to the scales and the reality is this is a two part situation. First of all, I think it's possible one player might have a couple of big games and get north of eight sacks but I don't see any two players doing so. My guess is that the distribution of sacks is fairly spread out and that limits any one, or in this case two, players ability to really put together a huge statistical season. Beyond the reality of what seems most likely, I also think Oklahoma has very good, steady, defensive ends but may not have yet found that elite edge rusher who can really put up the biggest and scariest numbers.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: Man, started this thing out on a total heater and I had some room to breath on this one as Oklahoma didn't have a single player with five sacks. Just an abysmal year in the form of creating pressure.

Preseason Breakdown: I know it may surprise some of you after reading the previous prediction to read this one. I think this defense will be very sound, avoid a lot of the mental miscues that they struggled with for the better part of the last decade. I also feel like this is as deep and talented as they've been in the back two-thirds of the defense in quite some time.

For those that don't know the SP+ is a weighted rating of teams that tries to find the middle ground and remove the variance that is opponent driven. Top 35 isn't exemplary but it's far better than No. 58 that they finished with in 2021.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: That sound you hear is my Fearless 20 momentum coming to a screeching halt. Man, this one was just awful and for those wondering, Oklahoma finished No. 70 in SP+ defensive rankings.

Preseason Breakdown: It's a testament to just how talented this 2022 class is that so many players could play a real factor beyond their allotted time. Those freshman will be Jovantae Barnes, Nic Anderson, Jayden Gibson, Jason Llewellyn, Jake Taylor, R Mason Thomas, Jaren Kanak, Jayden Rowe, and Robert Spears-Jennings.

Barnes has been covered but the two receivers may just be too talented to keep off the field. Llewellyn could fill a key need while Taylor, Thomas, Kanak, Rowe, and RS-J could be of a very similar nature and a key piece to building for 2023 and perhaps finding a few new stars.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: This one wasn't far off as Barnes, Gibson, Llewellyn, Taylor, Thomas, Kanak, and Spears-Jennings all played in at least five games. In fact I picked 9 and 10 scholarship signees went - Gentry Williams, Gracen Halton, and Jacob Sexton also all went over their four allotted along with walk-on Gavin Freeman. This one was really close and I think the 2022 class has laid a lot of the key foundation work.

Preseason Breakdown: While everyone may focus on all that happened after last year's Bedlam, it's kind impossible for me to not marvel at the fact the Sooners were even in that game. There was, according to anyone not named Lincoln Riley, some incredibly conflicted motivation and a team that was clearly living in two very separate realities. How does a team like that fight against a very good Oklahoma State team - maybe their best in roughly a decade - in Stillwater to a near stalemate? Fast forward a year when the Sooners have gone through plenty of change but seem as on the same page as any Oklahoma team in years. By the time the Cowboys roll into Norman Oklahoma figures to have not only revenge on their mind but a clear idea of who they are as a team. I just think the Sooners have a clear personnel edge and aren't facing the most veteran, and successful, defense in Cowboys history.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: I feel as good about this pick as any I made this year as it was something I felt strongly about that Oklahoma State was being extremely overvalued in the preseason. This was a team that lost much of it's heart and soul and massive amounts of experience. And honestly this game should have been more lopsided than it was.

Preseason Breakdown: There are few things less important than preseason rankings, award lists, and all conference nominations but to see Oklahoma not have a single first team member on offense or defense was still a bit mind blowing. That said, I'd expect a very different finish to the season when people are forced to face the reality that it's unlikely the Sooners are falling off anytime soon under Brent Venables. Look for six Sooners on offense or defense to make the list with Dillon Gabriel, Anton Harrison, Wanya Morris, Woodi Washington, Key Lawrence, and David Ugwoegbu.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: Man this one was not really even close and some out and out awful picks on this list. Still though there are multiple guys on this list that did belong on there and a few others that could next year. But for this year, absolutely a loss.

Preseason Breakdown: I really don't expect Oklahoma to continue to have some of the issues with lesser opponents that we've seen in the past. That being said, even the best teams fall into traps sometimes. And while this is a good Oklahoma bunch they've got a long way to go to prove their talent and preparation will just wear out one team after another. When you add in where this game falls on the schedule and it feels like the Horned Frogs, under their own first-year head coach Sonny Dykes, might have a trick up their sleeve. Having Kansas State before the trip to Ft. Worth and before their annual meeting in the Cotton Bowl just feels like it could be a challenge for the team's focus.

I'm not ready to predict the upset but I'm willing to be the Sooners, again, get a serious test at Amon Carter.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: I mean...come on? I feel like I'm developing a sixth sense for figuring out where Oklahoma's going to have trouble and there's just no denying that while the Kansas State game didn't go well this was when Oklahoma's real problems began.

Preseason Breakdown: Oklahoma's offensive line over the past few years has felt a bit like musical chairs with the group, for a variety of reasons never really being able to find a rhythm. But the early returns are that this offensive line could see some resurgence of Bill Bedenbaugh's position group. There's budding depth but a starting lineup of Anton Harrison, McKade Mettauer, Andrew Raym, Chris Murray, and Wanya Morris may be tough to break up barring injury. If there is a real fly in the ointment here? It could be the rumored development of Savion Byrd at guard, the Sooners may have trouble keeping him off the field but I'll bet that they find a way to keep him in heavy rotation without messing with the starting five. Regardless, Oklahoma's offensive line may be ready to start playing like the group that many came to expect in the last 2010s.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: I don't hate this one and think my premise was right but I just didn't give enough accounting to injuries as that was the majority of the issue here with Andrew Raym, in particular, having to fight through some stuff before eventually having shoulder surgery after the West Virginia game.

Preseason Breakdown: This prediction was made several weeks ago, before the rumors of Redmond being held out a bit this fall. But coming off what many have said was a big-time summer for Redmond it still all feels possible. He's a tremendously athletic defensive tackle who can make numerous plays behind the line of scrimmage. He knows this is going to be a huge year for his future and I'd expect his strongest performance to date. And while 12 may not feel like a huge number, it would surpass Perrion Winfrey's 11 in 2021.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: It's interesting how monumentally off this feels but Redmond ended up with 10 tackles for loss on the year so it's not as though he brought nothing to the table. Still though, I really thought Redmond would break out in 2022 and like the rest of his career it felt like a lot of 'close but not quite'.

Preseason Breakdown: There are few players for the Sooners in recent memory who bring more athletic ability to the secondary than junior safety Keyshawn Lawrence. Under the watchful eyes of Brandon Hall and Brent Venables it feels as though everything could come together for a huge second season in Norman. Lawrence blends elite speed with impressive physicality and a real feel for timing and being around the ball. Lawrence feels like he could be one of the real stars for the Sooners in 2022.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: WOOF. To this point in my predictions, this is my worst option by about a mile. Lawrence has all the skills in the world but at some point he's going to have to live up to them or his story next year is going to read a lot like Redmond's from above.

Preseason Breakdown: This is a bit of a mixed blessing as I expect Oklahoma to have two backs - Eric Gray and Jovontae Barnes - who will both go over 800-yards rushing even if I don't think either gets to 1,000 yards. I think they compliment each other well and will see plenty of Marcus Major eating up carries as well. Maybe someone gets the hot hand a few times but in general it feels like Jeff Lebby will go with spreading the ball around to work the ground game a bit.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: Well by this prediction I had two backs going over 1,600 yards and the Sooners had that with Gray and Barnes combining for nearly 1,900 yards on the season. However there's no denying that Gray with his 1,366 yards did the lion's share of the work. That said, Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk have given people reason to believe in big things for 2023.

Preseason Breakdown: The two freshmen receivers arrived in January and since then plenty have talked about what they bring to the table. Gibson arrived as a late addition to the class that came in with a lofty ranking and brings some things to the table that few on the roster can. Anderson on the other hand comes from one of the nation's most prestigious programs, Katy, Texas, and has impressed many with his physicality and maturity. Both should be factors this year and there's a world where this prediction looks pretty modest.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: It felt like early in the season that this was completely possible but it just never came to be as Gibson struggled a bit with drops and Anderson was fighting off injuries for a good part of the year. Both have real belief that they can be difference makers from those around the program but there's a long way between that and the big freshman season I thought they might each have.

Preseason Breakdown: This is a prediction that feels a bit hard to quantify but we're going to go with it just the same. The Sooners sophomore and freshman classes have some names that look primed to emerge and become the nucleus of the defense for the next few years. That group includes, but isn't exactly limited to, Ethan Downs, Danny Stutsman, Billy Bowman, Jaren Kanak, R Mason Thomas, Jayden Rowe, and Robert Spears-Jennings. There's considerable talent, and a lot of speed in the group that could become something of the foundation of Brent Venables' defense going forward.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: This one isn't a loss, it isn't exactly my proudest win, truth be told it's probably a push but I do think the Sooners saw signs of this group - largely the crew listed above - starting to develop as the foundation of Oklahoma's defense moving forward.

Preseason Breakdown: I'd honestly started to think more and more about having a fairly negative prediction in this category - one that I admit my mind is a bit preoccupied by. And while I'm not expecting any singular player to do much in sack totals, as a group it's hard to ignore that during Venables' time in Clemson, S.C. the Tigers averaged No. 6 in team sacks and finished top five in the country five times and No. 1 three times. In short, this defense creates plenty of pressure and they'll find a way to create some sacks with a front seven that is explosive and athletic.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: It's almost hard to understand how a team could be top five in tackles for loss in all of college football and yet be barely inside the national top 60 in sacks but that's where Oklahoma found itself. Looking at No. 18 I'm sure there was some doubt about this one ever coming in or how the two ideas could work but I really thought it would come in through the aggregate and, to a point, it did with eight Sooners having more than two sacks. But I just figured there would be more four and five sacks players than there were.

Preseason Breakdown: ...doesn't rush for 1,000 yards. That's just how big of a focus the running backs, and in particular Gray, will be in the passing game for the Sooners. Don't take it to mean there won't be plenty of focus on the ground as the Sooners figure to have multiple backs go over 750-yards - perhaps even three? Gray will make some big plays in the passing game as he often looked his best in that aspect, on the rare occasion he was targeted in 2021.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: Some of this was dead on and some missed - but I'm using the thought that backs would be such a big part of the passing game as I had expected. But honestly as I look at some of the history of Jeff Lebby offenses? That's on me, Gray was about on part with his predecessors at the position I just thought there'd be a bit more downfield activity.

Preseason Breakdown: I strongly considered Oklahoma being No. 1 in both run defense and offense but the latter feels like it'll be tough to do with a combination of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. Still though I'd expect a second place finish in that dept. and the Sooners to take the top spot on defense. It isn't as though it's a huge reach for a team with Oklahoma's talent but when you've lost multiple NFL draft picks in the front seven and are installing a new defense, it's not easy hill to climb. Still though, there's nothing Brent Venables will be as sure to focus on as his run defense's proficiency as anything.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: Oh good lord, that's just awful. But, first, second to worst...who's counting?

Preseason Breakdown: You may see a theme emerging that I expect some real growth along the front for Oklahoma. The Sooners have considerable experience returning and offensively have the look of one of the league's best lines if it can all come together. Defensively the Sooners aren't quite as flashy but should be very steady in the ground game. Match that up with a Texas group that mixes lacking depth with injuries, and inexperience. This game is too crazy to make bold predictions but the one thing that isn't bold is who wins int he trenches...tends to win.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: I mean, so much here that is hard to even understand in what basically became an exhibition game. But the bottom line is that Oklahoma didn't win the matchup along the line of scrimmage, frankly they didn't win much of anything.

Preseason Breakdown: I am expecting some outstanding matchups around the Big 12 both Baylor and Kansas State could be very interesting to watch. Beyond that the Sooners will have the heated rivalry matchups with both Oklahoma State and Texas. Still though I just like where this team's focus is at. It may not be as flashy as some teams of years past but it's going to have plenty of production and should have far fewer valleys in play.

VERDICT: LOSE

Thoughts: HAHAHA, no. WHAT AN IDIOT.

What's crazy is there are parts of the season that this all still felt possible especially with their being no clear cut No. 2 team for much of the year. But man it just did not happen for the Sooners and if they want to fix that in 2023 they've got to avoid the catastrophic mistakes on both sides of the ball.

Preseason Breakdown: I'm guessing at 11-2 or 12-1, obviously if it's the latter Oklahoma is almost certainly getting in. I'd expect Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and then several teams - including the Sooners to push into that conversation. In the end though I'm just guessing the Sooners up No. 5 or 6 maybe behind a Michigan or even Clemson? I just wonder a bit if voters will look at this team differently for not having some of the flashiness of it's predecessors.

VERDICT: WIN

Thoughts: I mean...those season predictions are whatever...but they did miss the playoffs and I'm, as ever, taking my wins where I can get them.

Record: 7-13

Thoughts: If I'm being honest when I knew it was time for this review and hadn't thought about what my predictions were five months ago, I expected I would have fared much worse.

What's interesting is where I went the most wrong was just in my thoughts on Oklahoma's team as a whole.

My thoughts on Oklahoma State? Valid.

My thoughts on some of Oklahoma's individual players? Accurate.

But man alive I just whiffed on where this team would go and in what ways they could and would improve in 2022.