Bubble Watch: Will Oklahoma make the NCAA Tournament?

With the regular season coming to a close, Skip Johnson and the Oklahoma Sooners (26-22, 10-11 Big 12) are one of many teams vying for a spot in the 64-team college baseball postseason field. However, the Sooners have some work in their final seven games and the Big 12 Tournament to ensure they hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

So, let’s dissect the Sooners up to this point.

With just seven regular season games remaining, OU sits just outside the cutoff line at No. 67 on D1Baseball’s latest Field of 64 projection (which can be viewed here)

FACTORS WORKING AGAINST THE SOONERS:

Conference Record

Oklahoma’s mediocre conference record is perhaps the biggest hurdle that it has created for itself. The Sooners currently sit at 10-11 in Big 12 play which is good for sixth in the conference with one conference series left on the itinerary against Oklahoma State (33-14, 11-7).

Oklahoma has impressed at times — as when it swept Texas (32-17, 12-9) in Austin in April — but has also had a slew of lows. Oklahoma was swept back in March by Kansas State (31-18, 11-7) — now a projected No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament field — and dropped a road series to the conference-bottom-dwelling Baylor Bears (16-30, 6-15)

Oklahoma will need to take at least two of three from Oklahoma State in Norman to have a feasible shot e at making a regional. Although the Sooners will host the Cowboys in Norman — it will be a tall task with how much the Cowboys have had their number in recent memory. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State most recently clashed for a nonconference midweek tussle in Stillwater in April — a 19-8 victory in favor of the Cowboys.

Record Against 100-200 RPI Opponents

The Sooners have played well against good competition, but have a 9-7 record against teams ranked 100-200 in the RPI.

A home series loss to mid-major Cal Baptist to open the season is one of several blemishes on Oklahoma's resume. The Lancers (26-23) dropped the season opener but rallied to 5-2 and 6-3 victories on Saturday and Sunday to stun the Sooners in Norman. Cal Baptist currently sits at No. 157 in the RPI which heavily works against the Sooners.

Oklahoma also dropped an ugly road series to Baylor as mentioned earlier after the Bears had been swept by Kansas in Lawrence the previous weekend. The Sooners squandered a 4-0 lead thanks to several bullpen blunders and dropped the first game by a 10-6 final tally before taking the second game by a 6-3 final tally to force a rubber match. The Bears took the rubber match by a 5-3 to send the Sooners back to Norman with a 4-8 conference record. Baylor currently sits at No. 166 in the RPI.

Oklahoma also dropped an extra-innings thriller with Abilene Christian (29-19) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, and the first game of a home nonconference series with Rider the following Friday as part of an ugly 2-4 start to the season. The Wildcats sit at No. 112 in the RPI and Rider at No. 109 — although the Broncs are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament field.

FACTORS WORKING IN THE SOONERS’ FAVOR:

Record Against 1-50 RPI Opponents

Although the Sooners have a less-than-desirable 9-7 record against 100-200 RPI opponents — they also have a promising 9-7 record against 1-50 RPI opponents.

Oklahoma dropped the conference opener to then-No. 11 TCU (27-21) at home to open conference play but rallied to 3-1 and 7-5 wins on Saturday and Sunday to take the series. The Horned Frogs have since fallen from grace and sit below Oklahoma on the bubble with an 8-10 conference record. However, TCU sits at No. 50 in the RPI — which boosts Oklahoma’s record against 1-50 RPI opponents.

Earlier this season, the No. 4 Stanford Cardinal (32-13) took the Thursday opener, 23-11 after taking an 11-0 lead in the second inning. However, the Sooners flipped the script on Friday and stunned the Cardinal with a 2-0 win in a pitcher’s duel and earned a hard-fought 6-5 win on Saturday before Stanford earned a 16-5 win on Sunday to split the series at 2-2. The Cardinal are currently ranked 12th in the RPI.

Last week the Sooners split four games between a road midweek matchup against now No. 18 Dallas Baptist (37-12) and a three-game series at No. 12 West Virginia (37-12). The Sooners escaped Dallas with a 10-7 upset win over the Patriots and took the Saturday game in Morgantown by a 6-3 final tally — although the red-hot Mountaineers took the series on Sunday. Oklahoma went to Dallas ranked No. 59 in the RPI but has since jumped 15 spots to No. 44 today after the 2-2 split with DBU and WVU. The Patriots and Mountaineers sit at No. 22 and No. 18 in the RPI.

Oklahoma has played well against elite competition and has three more chances to add wins against 1-50 RPI opponents when Oklahoma State comes to Norman to finish the regular season. The Cowboys sit at No. 22 in the RPI.

Strength of Schedule

Oklahoma has played the 17th most difficult schedule in all of college baseball, which heavily boosts its NCAA Tournament chances despite its 26-22 overall record on the season.

Oklahoma scheduled Houston (28-20) for a road nonconference series where the Sooners swept the Cougars with a 13-1 blowout win on Friday and 8-3 and 7-6 wins on Saturday and Sunday. Although Houston had a lousy 5-10 overall record after the series — the Cougars have gone 23-10 since and climbed to No. 90 in the RPI. The Cougars' improved performance has quietly provided a nice boost to Oklahoma's RPI and SOS.

Johnson has scheduled midweek matchups with quality opponents throughout the season — including three midweek matchups against Wichita State (27-20), two midweek matchups with No. 18 Dallas Baptist, and a road midweek matchup with Oral Roberts (37-11). Oklahoma is 3-3 in six games against these three mid-major Top 100 RPI opponents — which gives a nice boost to Oklahoma's SOS.

Oklahoma’s Path to the NCAA Tournament:

Oklahoma is in a position where it controls its own destiny to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sooners have a road trip to Spokane, Washington on the itinerary for a three-game road nonconference series with Gonzaga (18-27). Sitting at 26-22 — Oklahoma needs to sweep the Zags — who sit at No. 165 in the RPI to get closer to that 30-win threshold.

The Sooners will return to L. Dale Mitchell Park on Tuesday for a midweek matchup with UT Arlington (25-22). This will end a seven game road trip away from Norman and begin a four-game home stand. UT Arlington sits at No. 95 in the RPI and would represent another potential quality win for the Sooners to add to its resume.

Finally, Oklahoma will welcome Oklahoma State to Norman for a three-game conference series to conclude the regular season. The Sooners will need to take two of three from the Cowboys to finish .500 in conference play.

Oklahoma needs to break the 30-win threshold at minimum before the end of the regular season. It is imperative the Sooners finish at 4-3 at minimum over the final seven games of the regular season. A road sweep over Gonzaga would be ideal; however, a series win over the Zags is imperative.

Taking at least one game from Oklahoma State is also ideal. Winning at least two games at the Big 12 Tournament is essential.

All this needs to transpire in order for the Sooners to have any chance at holding a spot in a regional come June.