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Fearless 20: THE VERDICT

With the season now complete it's time to take a look back at the things our co-publisher, Josh McCuistion, was thinking coming into the 2016 season and see just how he fared with his annual 20 Fearless predictions. From starring roles for, then, emerging players to just where Baker Mayfield would figure into the Heisman trophy pursuit.

See just where the guesses went and how our annual whipping boy fared.

20. Obo Okoronkwo Will have 10 Sacks or More

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Okoronkwo could be on the verge of a huge season.
Okoronkwo could be on the verge of a huge season.

Breakdown: Most who have read this feature for the near decade it's been happening know that breaking down an edge rusher is always one of my favorite predictions and the 10 sack mark is often the starting point. For Okoronkwo I see a guy that has finally turned the corner and his production can start matching up with undeniable physical gifts. If he can play consistently and Oklahoma can find ways to play he and Charles Walker off of one another this could be a huge year for the Alief (Texas) Taylor product.

THE VERDICT: 

This one felt so certain with Okoronkwo just one sack shy, and coming off a two-sack performance in Bedlam. However Okoronkwo had a few looks and couldn't quite put it together. However while this one was wrong, the basic idea was right - Okoronkwo emerged as an elite edge rusher in the Big 12.

19. Baker Mayfield Has a Near Mirror Image of 2015

Can Mayfield Do Even More?
Can Mayfield Do Even More?

Breakdown: I think some are going to be disappointed with this pick but you look back on Mayfield's numbers and there just isn't a lot of room to go up. I would guess though that Oklahoma might like to knock down a few of those rushing attempts - especially those that weren't designed as such. Mayfield is a guy that could afford to avoid danger a bit more frequently but again last year was special and I've got ever expectation that he'll continue it.

THE VERDICT:

This one was vague and that's my fault. However Mayfield had four more touchdowns and 265-yards more passing in 2016 than in 2015 so I'm taking this one, if for no other reason than I've got some bad beats coming.

18. Mark Andrews Has Best Season From OU Tight End since 2008

Andrews Seems a Candidate for a Breakout.
Andrews Seems a Candidate for a Breakout.

Breakdown: Oklahoma has a great history of tight ends but in recent years has seen the position largely phased out. And though Andrews isn't exactly the most traditional of tight ends, he is the perfect version of this era's tight end. Andrews has speed to challenge linebackers and the size to overwhelm defensive backs. The bottom line is that while Jermaine Gresham's 2008 numbers of 66 receptions, 950-yards, and 14 touchdowns may be safe for another year, don't be surprised to see them starting to look in danger by the spring of 2017.

THE VERDICT: 

The reality? This was correct and frankly it wasn't all that close because the position has been so obsolete since Gresham's departure. It's not the year I thought he would have but the basic idea, is correct.

17. Oklahoma Jumps Out Big on Ohio State, Hangs On

Are the Young Buckeyes Ready for a Huge Road Test?
Are the Young Buckeyes Ready for a Huge Road Test?

Breakdown: This feels like a situation where an incredibly hyped up, and far more battle-tested, Oklahoma squad jumps out early on Ohio State but as an immensely talented roster the Buckeyes will find their feet and behind quarterback J.T. Barrett will find a way to make some big plays. In the end though, the home crowd, the youth all around Ohio State's starting line-up and a very talented and experienced roster will make Oklahoma tough to overcome.

THE VERDICT:

There is still so much of the game that just baffles me. Even as I watched Ohio State coming into the week, this felt like a game that was there for the taking. The Sooners played a very good team but players nor coaches looked ready for what they faced.

16. Westbrook does not go for 1000 yards

Westbrook Needs to Be a Downfield Threat for Oklahoma
Westbrook Needs to Be a Downfield Threat for Oklahoma

Breakdown: Another one of those prediction points that I always enjoy - can an Oklahoma receiver hit the lauded 1,000 yard mark? Last year I got Sterling Shepard breaking a not inconsiderable streak but this year I think the mixture of Westbrook, at times, being a bit unreliable and Oklahoma perhaps having more weapons, and a big-time ground game could make it difficult for any one receiver to hit the big number this year. Now that being said, I think Westbrook is a legitimate All-Big 12 first team contender but think he may come up just a few yards shy of 1,000.

THE VERDICT:

That says 'arguably the greatest year in Oklahoma receiving history', right? Oh, no...ouch. I picked a huge year for Westbrook in the podcast but wussed out here.

15. Watch Out in Lubbock

Mahomes and the Red Raiders are always dangerous in Lubbock
Mahomes and the Red Raiders are always dangerous in Lubbock

Breakdown: Honestly I'm not sure how fearless this one is it's a tough road game against a quarterback who has elite potential in a place that has been tough on the Sooners, and most of the Big 12, through the years. That being said, I can't help but wonder with an emotional player like Baker Mayfield what his return to Lubbock could be like and if it takes him a little while to tone down that emotion and just start playing the game. If that's the case look at this one to be nip and tuck from beginning to end. I'm not picking the upset but I bet this one is tight.

THE VERDICT: 

Another hit. But who could have predicted that high-flying poorly acted portrayal of football? I'm not sure I've ever been less interested in a college football game.

14. Charles Walker will Be an All-American but Not First-Team

Walker could be setting himself up for the NFL draft.
Walker could be setting himself up for the NFL draft.

Breakdown: I've been surprised all off-season to see how little clamor there is around Walker and the season he put together last year. 10 tackles for loss and six sacks from a sophomore, how is that not incredibly buzzy? My contention is on Oklahoma's biggest stage of the year Walker wasn't available and was, at least in the second half, run over so there has become an idea that Oklahoma's defensive line is soft. I think, if anything, it puts into perspective just how important Walker is to what Oklahoma is doing. I expect a huge year but without the preseason buzz a lot of votes will go to more well known names. That said, I think it could be the kind of year that makes it hard for Walker to turn down NFL money.

THE VERDICT:

So apparently the lack of clamor was from soothsayers who saw the chaos that was going to become Charles Walker's season. He definitely made headlines but none that he, nor Oklahoma wanted.

13. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon go for More than 2,400 Yards

Mixon, along with Perine, are two-thirds of the nation's best backfield.
Mixon, along with Perine, are two-thirds of the nation's best backfield. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: For those wondering this is exclusively about rushing yards and as such is about 300 more than their impressive totals from 2015. To put it in perspective even if Perine runs for a highly impressive 1,500 yards, and in doing so becomes Oklahoma's all-time leading rusher, Mixon would still have to run for 900-yards - something Oklahoma hasn't gotten out of it's second leading rusher since Chris Brown and Demarco Murray went for over 1,000 each in 2008.

THE VERDICT:

Man talk about being close, in the gross, I was right - in the net, I was wrong. And the reality is the net is all that matters. The duo combined for 2,334-yards just 66 shy of what was possible. I could have desperately used a full season of a healthy Perine.

12. By Kansas State Parnell Motley or Michiah Quick Will Start

Michiah Quick seems to be coming on quickly.
Michiah Quick seems to be coming on quickly. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: I know, I know Dakota Austin has been getting strong reviews and is, for many, a solidifying force but I still think he is a guy that does not fit Oklahoma's long-held desires at the cornerback position. They always seem to like bigger guys who are as comfortable as possible coming up and playing run. I understand why Austin is the choice at this point but guys like Motley and Quick are going to take time to fit in but may prove impossible to completely stave off.

THE VERDICT: 

I was way, way, way too conservative on this one. Though Motley didn't start both Jordan Parker and Parrish Cobb did. It is funny think back how all the buzz was about Motley early in camp - though some still think he has huge potential in front of him.

11. Cody Ford Emerges as one of the Country's Top Young Guards

Ford is one of the quiet potential breakout players for 2016.
Ford is one of the quiet potential breakout players for 2016. (SoonerScoop.com - Carey Murdock)

Breakdown: I have an admission to make, this was initially about Dru Samia and should he end up at guard I still think he'd be the choice - though I've always been a big fan of Ford. But with less confidence that Samia is going to be at right guard than right tackle I'm going to go with Ford here. With his power and ability to finish a block inside, Ford is a near perfect guard for what Bill Bedenbaugh prefers with his guards. He seems to have a vise grip on the left guard spot and could be a big part of what could be a dominant ground game.

THE VERDICT: 

Neither Samia nor Ford made this kind of dent in the universe this year. However, in Ford's case it had nothing to do with his play - which seemed to be set to take off before his injury early in the Ohio State game. Ford will have a battle on his hands to dethrone Ben Powers, who had a huge season as his replacement at left guard.

10. That game this year, Iowa State

Campbell has people in Ames buzzing.
Campbell has people in Ames buzzing. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: There are a lot of red flags on this one, first is Iowa State's history of some big-time upsets on his home field. Second is the history of teams taking tough beats on a Thursday night odd week. There are a lot of reasons to think this one could go awry but adding in the reality of Iowa State having some positive momentum going in a lot of ways with a young staff led by head coach Matt Campbell that will be looking, probably, for it's first marquee win. I think Oklahoma comes out on top but if it's within a touchdown, don't be surprised.

THE VERDICT: 

I was mocked for this one at the time but I'm taking the W here. I mean how many out of the blue games did Oklahoma struggle in this season? It was largely a year of dominating overmatched opponents but this one the Sooners never could quite put Iowa State away, at least until very late.

9. Mykel Jones has More Receptions and Yardage than any Freshman Since 2012

Jones has been talked about all summer.
Jones has been talked about all summer. (SoonerScoop.com/Carey Murdock)

Breakdown: The comparisons have been made, and not just by the media when you hear the coaches and players talk Sterling Shepard seems to come up a lot around Mykel Jones. In 2012 Shepard went for 45 receptions and 621-yards and though I think that mark might have been hittable if I thought Jones was going to be fully integrated by opening day. I think in this case Jones will come off a little slower, I'm guessing somewhere around 35 catches and 550-yards. I see a lot of big plays for him both this year and in the future.

THE VERDICT:

I think it's pretty clear that receiver is where some of my most painful swings and misses (see Tennell, Adron) but this is one I really did feel good about. One can't help but wonder if his injury late in fall practice made any, and all, of these predictions unattainable.

8. Steven Parker Will be a Semi-Finalist for the Thorpe Award.

Parker has two huge stages to set himself up.
Parker has two huge stages to set himself up. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: Parker's play against TCU made him something of a national name though it has surprised me how few are putting him among the nations' elite safeties - a spot I clearly feel he belongs in. With two huge games in the first three Parker will have a chance to show himself to the country and become the household name one needs to be to make a real run at a national award. I think he does exactly that and though he may not make it to the finals, but he could be one of the guys truly in contention down the stretch.

THE VERDICT: 

I don't think I've ever been more confused about a player's season than Parker's. The talented safety had some great moments, including the Sugar Bowl, but at the same time there were too many games where he didn't catch the eye as he did in his sophomore campaign. In the end this is a long way of saying 'I was wrong'.

7. Baylor Takes a Three Touchdown Drubbing in Norman.

Russell and the Bears are in chaos.
Russell and the Bears are in chaos. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: Last year I wasn't even predicting an Oklahoma win in Waco and now I've got the Sooners laying down a pretty stout beatdown on a Baylor team that is reeling from not just a team level but through the entirety of their program and athletic department. I don't think players and coaches are as oblivious to those things as they want to believe and I think when Oklahoma jumps on Baylor early things go bad quickly.

THE VERDICT:

Hard to get more perfect than that one.
Hard to get more perfect than that one.

6. Oklahoma Leads the Big 12 in Scoring and Pass Defense.

Stoops could have another big-time defense.
Stoops could have another big-time defense. (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: This may not seem crazy but with Oklahoma replacing almost half of their starting defense and playing in a league as high-flying as the Big 12 it's no small thing. that said they do have one key benefit, they don't have to face Baker Mayfield. But really Oklahoma has a potential star in the front with Charles Walker and a secondary that is as experienced as just about any in the conference or even the country.

THE VERDICT: 

Ohhhhhhh, no.
Ohhhhhhh, no.

5. Few Impact Freshmen than Normal?

Kelly is one of several freshmen the Sooners need to step up.
Kelly is one of several freshmen the Sooners need to step up. (SoonerScoop.com/Carey Murdock)

Breakdown: I was a bit concerned that Bob Stoops was going to ruin this prediction in his Monday press conference but he never really itemized the freshman who would play. So here we go, and I should note that these are players I expect to still be playing come November - not guys who see a bit of action and then end up with a medical redshirt. I'll go with cornerback Parrish Cobb, defensive end Amani Bledsoe, outside linebacker Caleb Kelly, running back Abdul Adams, wide receiver Mykel Jones, and yes, quarterback Austin Kendall. I know a big image was given of a lot of freshmen playing but I just don't see it, at least over the long haul, on a team that returns so much.

THE VERDICT: 

Everyone I predicted did play but it also forgets guys like Mark Jackson, Parnell Motley, Jordan Parker, and Chanse Sylvie. It ended up being a pretty standard year for Oklahoma's freshman as far as level of participants.

4. Joe Mixon's Season Almost a Decade in the Making.

Can Mixon Top Demarco Murray?
Can Mixon Top Demarco Murray? (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: So this is the second big prediction I've had that Joe Mixon was involved with and to specify, I'm seeing Mixon having the best receiving year from a running back since Demarco Murray's 71-receptions and 594-yards in 2010. Mixon is the only high school back I've seen, since Murray, that is completely capable of sliding outside and playing as a full-time receiver if the need, or preference, arose. Mixon's ability and the reality that Oklahoma's receivers still have some development to do could leave him making a lot of plays early in the season.

THE VERDICT: 

This is without a doubt a hit, but it's pretty amazing that Mixon nearly hit Murray's receiving yardage while catching almost half as many passes - 37 receptions for 538-yards. Mixon is a great receiver there was never any doubt but some of his plays, particularly the catch against Texas Tech, made it clear he is even more talented than we realized.

3. Second Song, Same Verse for Mayfield in Heisman

Will Mayfield Make it to New York?
Will Mayfield Make it to New York? (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: Earlier this week Baker Mayfield said he felt he was twice the player he was last year, within Oklahoma's offense. So I'll go ahead and say that if he throws for 74-touchdowns this year, he'll win the Heisman. That being said, that wasn't his point and I feel safe in saying that's a number he won't hit. I expect another big year from Mayfield and think this year he ends up in New York City, but still think he ends up fourth in voting - likely behind Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and my predicted winner, Deshaun Watson.

THE VERDICT: 

Is it any consolation that my predicted winner clearly SHOULD have won? No? Well, it was worth a shot. And though I did have Mayfield going to New York, I had him finishing fourth, so this one has to be counted as a miss, even if it was by the slimmest of margins.

2. A Red River Repeat?

Can Swooped engineer another expert?
Can Swooped engineer another expert? (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: What would a Fearless 20 be without a Texas prediction? It's peanut butter without the jelly. And much as peanut butter needs grape jelly, Fearless predictions needs talk of early October in the Cotton Bowl. So what's going to happen? Well first you can't ignore that Charlie Strong seems to have some sort of voodoo on Oklahoma with a real case being made the Longhorns should be coming in with a two-game winning streak. However, this should be a game Oklahoma is incredibly locked in for and any quarterback battle that involves Tyrone Swoopes throwing 25, or more, times per game should be a win. I'm going with Oklahoma in a 28-13 victory.

THE VERDICT: 

Well it wasn't Swoopes that Oklahoma faced, and frankly the Sooners had clearly done some work to be more prepared for him in 2016 than they were in 2015. And it wasn't quite the game I had predicted but the Sooners did pull off a win and it was, reasonably, comfortable.

1. What's to Come in 2016?

Could Stoops and Swinney meet, yet again?
Could Stoops and Swinney meet, yet again? (USA Today Sports)

Breakdown: So I've picked a lopsided win over Baylor, a solid win over Texas, and that Iowa State is going to put a scare into Oklahoma. Now what? Well I've got the Sooners at 11-1, with TCU or West Virginia being the two I'd have a real eye on for a loss. With that, the Sooners likely win a Big 12 title and head back to the College Football Playoff and I'll guess as the No. 4 seed again. My pick is they'll, again, face Clemson - likely undefeated, again. And, again, the Tigers will end Oklahoma's season.

The good news? Should the Sooners return the bulk of their draft eligible third and fourth year players, Oklahoma may well be 2017's pre-season No. 1.

THE VERDICT: 

Well I wasn't right, they didn't play Clemson and they weren't 11-1. In the end though Oklahoma is now in place as one of the real contenders for 2017.

THE SCORECARD:

This year, 8 correct, 12 incorrect.

With what was one of the most chaotic years in Oklahoma football history - Charles Walker, Joe Mixon, Houston, Ohio State, and so many other things - the Sooners were incredibly resilient but it also made them nearly impossible to predict. I'm still not sure how the defense was so, so bad at some key moments and how the issues with Dakota Austin weren't more foreseeable but all in all a very good season for Oklahoma.

It can be debated if it treated me similarly.

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