OU-Iowa State: Things to watch, questions, predictions

In recent years, it hasn’t seemed to matter how well Iowa State is playing. The Cyclones always give the Sooners their best shot.

The margin of victory in seven of the last eight games between the two teams has been 10 points or fewer, with the Cyclones winning in 2017 and 2020. The only exception came last season, when the Sooners left Ames, Iowa with a much-needed 27-13 victory.

On paper, tonight's matchup (6 p.m., FS1) should be one of the easier conference games for the Sooners, who are nearly 20-point favorites. The Cyclones did beat Oklahoma State 34-27 last week, but the Sooners shouldn’t have many issues defending an ISU offense that has struggled mightily for much of the season

However, the focus for the Sooners has been to not look past the Cyclones.

“As we know, the last three times that Iowa State has come to Norman (did) some pretty good things in ’17, ’19 and ’21,” OU coach Brent Venables said Tuesday. “They’ve had a lot of success. And they’re 1-2 in those games but the scoreboard total for both sides of the ball is 101 for Oklahoma and 100 for Iowa State. So they’ll have great confidence. This will be a disciplined, tough, physical football team. And it will be again a good challenge for us this week.”

Here’s a few things to watch, questions and predictions for the Sooners’ clash against Iowa State:

Offense: 21 points per game (13th in Big 12)

Defense: 16.5 points allowed per game (third in Big 12)

Schedule: 30-9 W over Northern Iowa; 20-13 L to Iowa; 10-7 L to Ohio; 34-27 W over Oklahoma State

1. The Sooners’ offensive line

The results have been mixed for the Sooners’ offensive line through four weeks.

The pass blocking stats have been solid. The Sooners have only surrendered three sacks, the second fewest in the Big 12 and tied for the ninth fewest nationally. The problem, however, has been run blocking. The Sooners are averaging 157 rushing yards per game, which ranks 65th nationally, and only three offensive linemen (Tyler Guyton, Walter Rouse, Jacob Sexton) have a run-blocking grade higher than 65.1, per Pro Football Focus.

The Sooners’ offensive line knows they need to clean things up in the running game. They should have an opportunity to do that against a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense in Iowa State, which is eighth in the Big 12 in running yards allowed per game (115).

“It’s not about being physical or guys wanting to have the run game. It’s just about being down into the details,” OU center Andrew Raym said Tuesday. “We’ve got to have people (line) up correctly. We’ve got to block things correctly and we’ll be fine.”

Also something to watch is the left guard spot. Savion Byrd started the first three games but he’s been inconsistent and he missed last week's game. Troy Everett got the start against Cincinnati and played 65 snaps, per PFF, and Everett did play more than Byrd against SMU. It should be interesting to see who gets the start between Byrd and Everett, and how the snaps shape out.

2. The Sooners’ defensive line

The coaching staff appears to have settled on three of the starting spots on the defensive line: Rondell Bothroyd, Ethan Downs and Jacob Lacey. Those three have started each of the past three games. Jonah Laulu started at defensive tackle against SMU and Tulsa but the Sooners made a tweak against Cincinnati, starting Isaiah Coe over Laulu.

But it does seem like the Sooners are still figuring out what they have. Against Cincinnati, 12 defensive linemen logged at least 10 snaps, per PFF.

The rotations up front should be interesting against an Iowa State offensive line that has surrendered just one sack this season, tied for the fewest in the country. If the Sooners can get consistent pressure on ISU quarterback Rocco Becht, that bodes well for their ability to significantly limit the Cyclones’ offense.

1. Can the Sooners find a rhythm in the running game?

It’s been the million-dollar question through four games.

By now, most fans know how things in the backfield have progressed so far. After Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk saw all of the work against Tulsa, neither of them logged an offensive snap against Cincinnati. Instead, Marcus Major saw the bulk of the work with some cameos from Tawee Walker.

Despite some good moments, the Sooners had just 105 rushing yards against Cincinnati and only 35 in the first half. And while the Sooners are figuring out their rotation, the running game has struggled to run efficiently. The Sooners are averaging just 4.0 yards per carry, tied for 69th nationally.

Regardless of how the carries shake out, the Sooners simply need to find a rhythm against Iowa State. The Cyclones are first in the Big 12 in passing defense (177 yards allowed per game), and things could get difficult for OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel if the Sooners struggle to run effectively.

2. Can the OU defense continue to solidify itself as legitimate?

If there’s an opportunity for the OU defense to dominate, it’s tonight.

The Cyclones rank 13th in the Big 12 in scoring, 12th in passing (225 yards per game) and 13th in rushing offense (83.3 yards per game). The Sooners, conversely, rank second nationally in scoring defense (8.5 points allowed per game). But more importantly, the Sooners rank inside the top-10 in takeaways (10).

At home against a struggling offense, there are plenty of reasons to expect the OU defense to shut down the Iowa State offense. If it can, the Sooners will have a lot of momentum heading into next weekend’s matchup with Texas.

1. OU’s running game finds a rhythm and finishes with 200 yards.

2. The OU defense limits Iowa State to under 250 total yards.

3. The Sooners win 28-10.