This addition to OU Insider VIP is in Year 3 and is set to be the best series yet! Each week I put a bow on the previous game then transition to the upcoming game. Per usual, there will be “bold predictions” at the bottom and I implore you to add your own in the message board replies.
Each year the comments immediate ask “Where are the recipes, Grill Boy??”. Well, this year I am giving you just that! Each week I will be filming a step-by-step tutorial on how to make a dish that coordinates with the opponent for that week. This will live on the OUInsider YouTube Channel.
OLE MISS REVIEW
1. Brent Vanables-led teams have largely been abysmal during the “middle eight” for the last three seasons. For those of you that don’t know, the middle eight is the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. Well we ALMOST fixed it against Ole Miss. We saw the best late-first half execution we’ve seen all year. I honestly didn’t think it possible.
- With 4:25 left in the half Ole Miss had 1st and 10 at the Oklahoma 14 after Danny Stutsman extends the drive with a facemark on a 3rd down TFL.
- With 2:44 left the Sooners turn the Rebels over on downs at the Oklahoma 8 with a massive TFL.
- Joe Jon Finley engineers a 13-play, 92-yard touchdown drive. Jacob Jordan catches the 3rd and Goal touchdown pass with a mere 6 seconds left on the clock.
That’s GORGEOUS. JJF had a sustained, clock-eating possession that end in a touchdown. Ole Miss came in with the nation’s best 1st half point margin, as they were +134 in first halves this season. They were -4 on Saturday. That’s what this defense needs. That’s what this team needs. Then it all came crashing down in the second half of the middle eight. Here are the next six disastrous possessions out of half:
- OU - 3 and out
- OM - Touchdown
- OU - 3 and out
- OM - Touchdown
- OU - 6 plays, 0 yards, punt
- OM - Field Goal
2. Many will point to the “10 sacks” as the reason this game was lost. I’ll borrow from the media’s resident OL expert Gabe Ikard on this. The added context is that Gabe, Oklahoma, and many other coaching staffs don’t consider TFL’s on run plays to be sacks.
@GabeIkard - “86 plays for OU’s offense against Ole Miss.
OL gave up 1 sack in the first 76 plays. Gave up 5 in the last 10 plays of the game.”
Jake Sexton’s exit from the game with a knee injury and Oklahoma being forced to drop back and throw late compounded into an absolute disaster. Ole Miss edge rushers were able to pin their ears back and tee off on Arnold. We’ll see if JJF introduces some type of screen, draw, or quick throw game to help mitigate some risk when faced with those scenarios in the future.
3. I thought the run game had its best game of the season. I also don’t think that it is particularly close. When you consider that 64 of the college statistician’s “rush yards” are actually negative sack yards, Oklahoma rushed for over 200 yards. Jackson Arnold rushed for 103 yards while Jovantae Barnes rushed for 67 on 16 carries. Barnes also added a team-leading 57 yards receiving on 5 catches. His 5.9 yards per touch was aided by some rarely seen shiftiness in his open field running. I was inspired by what that might mean for this November stretch. I also think that Oklahoma went away from the run a bit too much in the second half. The offensive line was run blocking better than they were pass blocking, and your first half formula was winning. Ole Miss came into the game with the nation’s top run defense and you were gashing them. Through the first three drives of the second half, Oklahoma gained 28 rushing yards on 7 carries. During those same drives they netted -5 yards on 5 passing attempts. Each of those possessions featured a penalty that got Oklahoma off-schedule. After those possessions, Oklahoma felt forced to throw as the halftime lead vanished while the deficit grew to two scores.
4. At first glance you probably hold the “Bauer Sharp stinks, stop throwing him the ball” opinion. I will not lie, I felt those words creep in to my mind during the second half. But there has to be a reason they keep throwing him the ball despite his deficiencies. Let’s take a look at some key plays in Saturday’s contest.
- (13:24 3Q) 3rd down drop short of sticks (Brenen Thompson beats his man inside beyond the sticks)
- (8:40 3Q) 3rd down drop beyond the sticks (Thompson and Jordan come open)
- (3:26 3Q) 2nd and 18 catch and run backwards for loss of 8
- (9:58 4Q) 3rd and 7 lead blocker on quick screen to Jordan and gets knocked down by DB, resulting in Jordan getting stopped short of the line to gain
Whether the game plan runs through Sharp or Jackson just locks onto him naturally, the reliance on #10 in the game plan needs to change until he can consistently deliver.
5. I am in the “the defense is really good to great” camp. I believe this because the defensive line, the linebackers, and the safeties have been good. The problem is that the book is out on our corners. Auburn may have exposed the defense’s most glaring weakness. Granted, Ole Miss has a group of fantastic receivers, but they were also missing their best player on offense who happens to be a wideout. Here are some key plays in the Oklahoma secondary that sunk the Sooners:
- (5:50 3Q) Kani Walker bites HARD on a double move and Jordan Watkins is wide open for a 34 yard catch down to the 1.
- (1:16 3Q) Dez Malone passes off Juice Wells to Casper the Ghost and it results in a 34 yard catch into field goal range.
Now, this may have been safeties failing to rotate over or a breakdown in communication, but our corners not named Eli Bowen have had a rough time in SEC play.
MAINE MEAL PREP
1. I’m not sure the Sooners are “SEC-Ready” but I will say they are “SEC-FCS-November-Tuneup-Ready” because this game against Maine could not come at a more perfect time. Joe Jon is fresh off of his first career game as a play caller. He put together a really nice first half, and everything crumbled in the second half. Another week of him game planning will undoubtedly help. The Sooners are also famously banged up and have entered the final four games of their season. This means that the freshmen can be released into the rotation without risk of burning their redshirts. With Jake Taylor and Jake Sexton both being out with injuries, Brent Venables has elevated freshman Isaiah Autry-Dent from the practice squad. He said in his press conference that Autry-Dent had won scout team offensive lineman of the week several times this year. The “just play the freshmen, it can’t get any worse!” crowd is about to get what they’ve been asking for the last few weeks.
2. Defining success against a team like Maine is a bit tough. Despite the Oklahoma offensive woes, there is not an offensive scoring total that will garner Joe Jon Finley praise. But one thing that I NEED to see is a perfect red zone game. While people pointed to the offensive line, a certain tight end, or our secondary as reasons why the Sooners came up empty in Oxford, I think the red zone offense is really to blame. The Sooners had two red zone trips that were stymied by playcalling, execution, or the combination of the two.
- (8:52 1Q) 1st and 10 at the Ole Miss 11 - Turnover on Downs
- (7:11 4Q) 1st and 10 at the Ole Miss 13 - Turnover on Downs
That’s the ballgame, folks. This offense isn’t built to waste points. If you trust your defense, which we know BV does, then you have to take points on the road in the SEC. Numbers aside, it gives a home team significant confidence and momentum if they’re able to blank you on a red zone trip. That’s why I need Oklahoma to be perfect in the red zone against the Maine Black Bears.
3. The last I checked, Maine was a 34.5 point underdog in this game. This may be jarring for those who have watched Oklahoma accumulate a combined total of 26 points over the last month. In fact, the last time that Oklahoma scored above 34.5 points, Temple was in town. The defense forced six turnovers that day and Jalil Farooq and Deion Burks were still lining up in the Sooner offense. Additionally, Maine has scored 14 or more in every game this season, twice scoring 34 or more. In no way should the Black Bears be able to come in to Norman, OK and beat the Sooners. But that sure seems like A LOT of points. Can this offense, with this offensive line, and these receivers, score the 45-50 points it will take to cover the spread? I’ll believe it when I see it.
4. Slowing down the Black Bear offense may be as simple as throwing Eli Bowen on Montigo Moss. Moss far and away leads Maine in receptions and yards. He has as many receptions (42) as the next three leading receivers on the squad (18, 13, 11). The super senior from Charlottte, North Carolina is coming off a game where he set his career high for receptions with 9 to go with 80 yards. The man he’s connecting with for those receptions is fellow super senior Carter Peevy from Lawrenceville, Georgia. The 6’3 QB is completing over 70% of his passes for the season, and if kept clean, is highly accurate. Two weeks ago he had the best game of his career. Against Villanova Peevy completed 16 of his 18 pass attempts with 3 of them going for touchdowns in a blowout win.
5. Oklahoma found something in the run-blocking against Ole Miss. As I mentioned, going into the matchup the Rebels had allowed a nation’s best 66.6 yards per game to opponents. With 3:32 left in the 3rd quarter in Oxford, the Sooners had gained 153 yards on the ground. That was the most the Rebels had given up all season. That tells me that Joe Jon is going to continue to lean on the ground game when he can. That could spell Bad News for the Bears as they rank 57th amongst FCS teams in team rush defense. Going from the best run defense in the FBS to 57th best in FCS is exactly what this offensive line needs. It’s also a perfect opportunity to see what the young guys can do. I’m not just talking about EPL. Let big Xavier Robinson get in there and do some damage. Most importantly, give your offensive line and running backs some confidence going into the home stretch of this schedule. They need to believe they can do something at a high level.
MAINE SCORE PREDICTION
Each week we’ll see if anyone can nail the exact score. If you do, I’ll try and get Parker to send you some men's skincare product or something.
My prediction:
OU 38
Maine 7
BOLD PREDICTION
Throughout the season we will do bold predictions for each game. I will start us off, and then I will ask the members to give me some bold predictions in the comments. From the member-produced predictions, I’ll add any that came true to the next article.
Best predictions from last week:
@OUModGuy said “OU gets their first 100 yard rusher of the season” I’m counting this since Jackson rushed for 103 yards and the negative sack yardage brought that down.
@TravisSkol said “Oklahoma doesn’t allow a 100-yard receiver. Ole Miss was led by TE Prieskorn for 71 yards
@TravisSkol said “Jacob Jordan touchdown.” One day that won’t be bold.
@C_Ray33 said “OU simplifies things and does just enough. Offense shows up early scoring 14 in the first half and gives the defense a reason to fight (although defense has stayed steady) That was one of the best predictions of the year. I hope he bet on the first half number.
My predictions for this week:
1. Jacob Jordan TWO touchdowns. I’ve got Jacob Jordan fever.
2. Oklahoma allows less than 75 rushing yards, while rushing for over 250 themselves. After a great showing against Ole Miss, t’s time to let the run game take off.
- OT
- S
- WR
- DT
- WR
- WR
- PRO
- CB
- OT
- APB