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Published Sep 1, 2022
F20: Back on Top?
Josh McCuistion  •  OUInsider
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@Josh_Scoop

Oklahoma's 2022 season is now just days away and as such it's time for our annual trip inside the mind of SoonerScoop.com co-publisher Josh McCuistion. What are his expectations for year one under Brent Venables? In this week's final five predictions we talk about the Red River Rivalry, the chance for the Sooners to win the Big 12, and could they make the playoffs?

20. Jovantae Barnes Will End up Second on the Team in Rushing

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Breakdown: Well, this prediction was made before the news emerged that Barnes is still healing up and isn't quite full go for the Sooners yet. But, alas the show goes on and Barnes is a player who probably has the most potential of any back on the roster. The freshman from Las Vegas will take time to ease into things but his talent is undeniable and he may get there by popping some of the longer runs of the year for Oklahoma.

19. Marvin Mims Breaks a Streak of non 1,000 Yard Years

Breakdown: 1,000 yard receivers were once something of a birth right for Sooners. From 2008-2019, 10 receivers passed the threshold but since 2019 not one receiver has hit that mark. Now obviously that's just two seasons but it's been since 2012-2014 that Oklahoma has gone three straight seasons without a 1,000 yard receiver. In 2022 Marvin Mims will avoid that ugly triple from happening again thanks in part to a large number of big plays from Jeff Lebby's offense.

18. Oklahoma Won’t have Two Players Over Six Sacks in 2022

Breakdown: Alright, well time to bring some balance to the scales and the reality is this is a two part situation. First of all, I think it's possible one player might have a couple of big games and get north of eight sacks but I don't see any two players doing so. My guess is that the distribution of sacks is fairly spread out and that limits any one, or in this case two, players ability to really put together a huge statistical season. Beyond the reality of what seems most likely, I also think Oklahoma has very good, steady, defensive ends but may not have yet found that elite edge rusher who can really put up the biggest and scariest numbers.

17.  Oklahoma’s defense ends up top 35 in SP+

Breakdown: I know it may surprise some of you after reading the previous prediction to read this one. I think this defense will be very sound, avoid a lot of the mental miscues that they struggled with for the better part of the last decade. I also feel like this is as deep and talented as they've been in the back two-thirds of the defense in quite some time.

For those that don't know the SP+ is a weighted rating of teams that tries to find the middle ground and remove the variance that is opponent driven. Top 35 isn't exemplary but it's far better than No. 58 that they finished with in 2021.

16. Nine true freshmen play beyond their four allowed games

Breakdown: It's a testament to just how talented this 2022 class is that so many players could play a real factor beyond their allotted time. Those freshman will be Jovantae Barnes, Nic Anderson, Jayden Gibson, Jason Llewellyn, Jake Taylor, R Mason Thomas, Jaren Kanak, Jayden Rowe, and Robert Spears-Jennings.

Barnes has been covered but the two receivers may just be too talented to keep off the field. Llewellyn could fill a key need while Taylor, Thomas, Kanak, Rowe, and RS-J could be of a very similar nature and a key piece to building for 2023 and perhaps finding a few new stars.

15. Oklahoma wins Bedlam by Two Touchdowns

Breakdown: While everyone may focus on all that happened after last year's Bedlam, it's kind impossible for me to not marvel at the fact the Sooners were even in that game. There was, according to anyone not named Lincoln Riley, some incredibly conflicted motivation and a team that was clearly living in two very separate realities. How does a team like that fight against a very good Oklahoma State team - maybe their best in roughly a decade - in Stillwater to a near stalemate? Fast forward a year when the Sooners have gone through plenty of change but seem as on the same page as any Oklahoma team in years. By the time the Cowboys roll into Norman Oklahoma figures to have not only revenge on their mind but a clear idea of who they are as a team. I just think the Sooners have a clear personnel edge and aren't facing the most veteran, and successful, defense in Cowboys history.

14. OU Will have Six All-Big 12 Honorees

Breakdown: There are few things less important than preseason rankings, award lists, and all conference nominations but to see Oklahoma not have a single first team member on offense or defense was still a bit mind blowing. That said, I'd expect a very different finish to the season when people are forced to face the reality that it's unlikely the Sooners are falling off anytime soon under Brent Venables. Look for six Sooners on offense or defense to make the list with Dillon Gabriel, Anton Harrison, Wanya Morris, Woodi Washington, Key Lawrence, and David Ugwoegbu.

13. Look Out for TCU

Breakdown: I really don't expect Oklahoma to continue to have some of the issues with lesser opponents that we've seen in the past. That being said, even the best teams fall into traps sometimes. And while this is a good Oklahoma bunch they've got a long way to go to prove their talent and preparation will just wear out one team after another. When you add in where this game falls on the schedule and it feels like the Horned Frogs, under their own first-year head coach Sonny Dykes, might have a trick up their sleeve. Having Kansas State before the trip to Ft. Worth and before their annual meeting in the Cotton Bowl just feels like it could be a challenge for the team's focus.

I'm not ready to predict the upset but I'm willing to be the Sooners, again, get a serious test at Amon Carter.

12. Look for the Same Starting 5 on the O-Line All Year

Breakdown: Oklahoma's offensive line over the past few years has felt a bit like musical chairs with the group, for a variety of reasons never really being able to find a rhythm. But the early returns are that this offensive line could see some resurgence of Bill Bedenbaugh's position group. There's budding depth but a starting lineup of Anton Harrison, McKade Mettauer, Andrew Raym, Chris Murray, and Wanya Morris may be tough to break up barring injury. If there is a real fly in the ointment here? It could be the rumored development of Savion Byrd at guard, the Sooners may have trouble keeping him off the field but I'll bet that they find a way to keep him in heavy rotation without messing with the starting five. Regardless, Oklahoma's offensive line may be ready to start playing like the group that many came to expect in the last 2010s.

11. Jalen Redmond Has 12+ TFLs in 2022

Breakdown: This prediction was made several weeks ago, before the rumors of Redmond being held out a bit this fall. But coming off what many have said was a big-time summer for Redmond it still all feels possible. He's a tremendously athletic defensive tackle who can make numerous plays behind the line of scrimmage. He knows this is going to be a huge year for his future and I'd expect his strongest performance to date. And while 12 may not feel like a huge number, it would surpass Perrion Winfrey's 11 in 2021.

10. Key Lawrence Makes Second Team All-American

Breakdown: There are few players for the Sooners in recent memory who bring more athletic ability to the secondary than junior safety Keyshawn Lawrence. Under the watchful eyes of Brandon Hall and Brent Venables it feels as though everything could come together for a huge second season in Norman. Lawrence blends elite speed with impressive physicality and a real feel for timing and being around the ball. Lawence feels like he could be one of the real stars for the Sooners in 2022.

9. Oklahoma Will Have Two Backs Go Over 800-yards

Breakdown: This is a bit of a mixed blessing as I expect Oklahoma to have two backs - Eric Gray and Jovontae Barnes - who will both go over 800-yards rushing even if I don't think either gets to 1,000 yards. I think they compliment each other well and will see plenty of Marcus Major eating up carries as well. Maybe someone gets the hot hand a few times but in general it feels like Jeff Lebby will go with spreading the ball around to work the ground game a bit.

8. Nic Anderson and Jayden Gibson Combine for Seven Touchdowns

Breakdown: The two freshmen receivers arrived in January and since then plenty have talked about what they bring to the table. Gibson arrived as a late addition to the class that came in with a lofty ranking and brings some things to the table that few on the roster can. Anderson on the other hand comes from one of the nation's most prestigious programs, Katy, Texas, and has impressed many with his physicality and maturity. Both should be factors this year and there's a world where this prediction looks pretty modest.

7. A Young Core of Defenders Begin to Emerge

Breakdown: This is a prediction that feels a bit hard to quantify but we're going to go with it just the same. The Sooners sophomore and freshman classes have some names that look primed to emerge and become the nucleus of the defense for the next few years. That group includes, but isn't exactly limited to, Ethan Downs, Danny Stutsman, Billy Bowman, Jaren Kanak, R Mason Thomas, Jayden Rowe, and Robert Spears-Jennings. There's considerable talent, and a lot of speed in the group that could become something of the foundation of Brent Venables' defense going forward.

6. Oklahoma Finishes Top 25 in Sacks

Breakdown: I'd honestly started to think more and more about having a fairly negative prediction in this category - one that I admit my mind is a bit preoccupied by. And while I'm not expecting any singular player to do much in sack totals, as a group it's hard to ignore that during Venables' time in Clemson, S.C. the Tigers averaged No. 6 in team sacks and finished top five in the country five times and No. 1 three times. In short, this defense creates plenty of pressure and they'll find a way to create some sacks with a front seven that is explosive and athletic.

5. Eric Gray has over 1,400 total yards but...

Breakdown: ...doesn't rush for 1,000 yards. That's just how big of a focus the running backs, and in particular Gray, will be in the passing game for the Sooners. Don't take it to mean there won't be plenty of focus on the ground as the Sooners figure to have multiple backs go over 750-yards - perhaps even three? Gray will make some big plays in the passing game as he often looked his best in that aspect, on the rare occasion he was targeted in 2021.

4. Oklahoma Leads the Big 12 in Rushing Defense

Breakdown: I strongly considered Oklahoma being No. 1 in both run defense and offense but the latter feels like it'll be tough to do with a combination of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. Still though I'd expect a second place finish in that dept. and the Sooners to take the top spot on defense. It isn't as though it's a huge reach for a team with Oklahoma's talent but when you've lost multiple NFL draft picks in the front seven and are installing a new defense, it's not easy hill to climb. Still though, there's nothing Brent Venables will be as sure to focus on as his run defense's proficiency as anything.

3. Oklahoma Beats Texas Up Front, Again

Breakdown: You may see a theme emerging that I expect some real growth along the front for Oklahoma. The Sooners have considerable experience returning and offensively have the look of one of the league's best lines if it can all come together. Defensively the Sooners aren't quite as flashy but should be very steady in the ground game. Match that up with a Texas group that mixes lacking depth with injuries, and inexperience. This game is too crazy to make bold predictions but the one thing that isn't bold is who wins int he trenches...tends to win.

2. OU Wins the Big 12

Breakdown: I am expecting some outstanding matchups around the Big 12 both Baylor and Kansas State could be very interesting to watch. Beyond that the Sooners will have the heated rivalry matchups with both Oklahoma State and Texas. Still though I just like where this team's focus is at. It may not be as flashy as some teams of years past but it's going to have plenty of production and should have far fewer valleys in play.

1. The Sooners Miss the Playoff

Breakdown: I'm guessing at 11-2 or 12-1, obviously if it's the latter Oklahoma is almost certainly getting in. I'd expect Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and then several teams - including the Sooners to push into that conversation. In the end though I'm just guessing the Sooners up No. 5 or 6 maybe behind a Michigan or even Clemson? I just wonder a bit if voters will look at this team differently for not having some of the flashiness of it's predecessors.