The NCAA Tournament has returned and has officially arrived this weekend. Not the seeding Oklahoma was hoping for a month ago, but the Sooners are dancing again under Lon Kruger.
No. 8 Oklahoma takes on No. 9 Missouri in the West region at 6:25 p.m. Saturday on TNT. If any team knows the ups and downs of the last month as the Sooners, it’s the Tigers.
SoonerScoop.com asks PowerMizzou.com’s Mitchell Forde for a breakdown of the Tigers heading into the first-round matchup.
1. It’s like looking in a mirror for OU and Missouri. Two teams in the top 10 in February and now in the No. 8-No. 9 game just a month later. OU has lost five of six, while Mizzou has lost six of nine. So where are the Tigers at mentally heading into Saturday’s showdown?
I don’t necessarily get the vibe that Missouri is doubting itself or anything like that, but it’s clearly lacking some of the mojo it had earlier in the season. For a while, the Tigers were winning every single close game they played. The odds caught up with them a bit there, and while they’re still 7-1 on the season in games decided by five points or less, we’ve seen a few instances lately where games have been tied or within a score after the last media timeout and they’ve gotten away from Mizzou a little bit. This is also a team that’s been prone to blowing leads. If things start to spiral in the second half, I worry about them being able to get it back under control because we’ve seen too many times over the last six weeks or so where they haven’t been able to. Finally, the one individual whose confidence fans have to be a bit concerned about is Jeremiah Tilmon. Tilmon has been a beast for most of this season, but as opponents have started paying more attention to him, his offensive numbers have dipped and his fouls have gone up. We’ll discuss him more below, but Mizzou needs him to play well if it’s going to win this game.
2. OU was 14-5 at one point, and it feels like forever ago. The Tigers were 13-3, so what has changed down the stretch run, if anything? Any common thread stand out?
I think there’s a few factors at play, two of them being mentioned above: The law of averages caught up to Missouri in close games and Tilmon hasn’t quite been able to sustain his level of play from early in the year. The other issue is the defense. During the first 12 games of the season, Mizzou didn’t allow an opponent to score 80 points or more a single time and those opponents averaged 66.4 points per game. Over the last 13 games, six opponents have scored at least 80 and those teams have averaged 77.0 per game. Defense has typically been the cornerstone of Cuonzo Martin-coached teams, and Mizzou needs to get back to the way it was playing defense earlier in the year.
3. Who’s the X-factor for this team? Not the best player, but the one where if he’s playing at a high level to complement the star pieces, Mizzou is going to win.
It’s definitely Xavier Pinson. Pinson is a high-usage point guard, and when he’s playing well, he’s Missouri’s best player at creating offense. But because he has the ball in his hands so much, when he’s off, he’s really off, and his backup, Drew Buggs, isn’t a scoring threat. Pinson is at his best when he’s aggressively attacking north to south and getting to the basket, either to score or pass. Lately, however, he’s had a lot more games where he’s appeared content to just be a jump-shooter. He did play pretty well in the SEC Tournament, averaging 15.5 points per game, so Missouri fans will hope that carries over to Saturday.
4. How has COVID-19 affected the team this season? Do you feel like the Tigers have been able to truly showcase what they’re about this season, and specifically, will be at their best Saturday?
At least since the season tipped off, Mizzou has pretty much stayed COVID-free. We haven’t heard anything to indicate they’ll be at less than full strength Saturday. On one hand, the pandemic hurt Mizzou a bit by wiping several easy wins off the schedule. The Tigers’ three games that ended up not being played would have been against some blood donor I don’t remember, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, all at home. A few blowout wins probably would have helped their predictive metrics a bit. At the same time, overall, I actually think Missouri’s record benefitted from the pandemic. This team’s greatest strength is its experience. Of the eight players who see the most time for this team, seven are at least in their third year of college. I think early in the season, when teams were coming off less practice time than usual, the experience and cohesiveness of Missouri really helped it beat teams like Illinois, Oregon and Wichita State.
5. Ideally, Missouri is going to want both Jeremiah Tilmon and Dru Smith to have a big-time performance? But if it’s just one who plays lights out, who gives the Tigers the best chance of winning? Who can put the rest of the team on his back and carry them?
If you have to choose just one of those two, the choice is easy: Tilmon. Even if Dru Smith doesn’t have the best scoring game, he’s going to be solid. He’ll still play 36 minutes and guard Austin Reaves and get a few steals and assists, and especially if Pinson is playing well, Missouri does have some other backcourt options who can score. If Tilmon isn’t engaged or effective, the Tigers don’t have someone else who can bring the physical presence that he brings. When he’s at his best, he demands constant double-teams, which obviously help create open shots for other players. If he’s on, I think it will force Oklahoma to play bigger than it wants to in an effort to slow him down, which could hurt the Sooners’ ability to spread the floor on the offensive end. Tilmon is also Missouri’s best rim protector. If Oklahoma can neutralize him or get him in foul trouble early, its chances of winning will go way up.
