College football is nearing a pivotal tipping point in its lifetime, and what lies on the other side of its inevitable keeling is anybody's guess.
We aren't without a number of possible outcomes, though, as the masses have been opining about what would be best for the sport for years now.
The likeliest future of the sport currently appears to be a "Super Conference" of sorts, which would allow the top 70-ish football programs in the country to break off from the rest of the FBS and operate under their own governing body.
Last week, a group known as College Sports Tomorrow unveiled its idea for the College Student Football League (CSFL). This league would reformat the top 72 programs — in football only — into a "Power 12" Conference and place the remaining 64 FBS teams into a "Group of 8" Conference. Each conference would then be separated into geography-based divisions.
The CSFL promises to bring stability back to college football, but it has failed to gain the support of the majority of decision-makers.
However, a similar Super League concept known as "Project Rudy" appears to have the backing of several high-profile names in college football and is the underlying reason for a historic summit between Big Ten and SEC officials in Nashville this week.
Yahoo! Sports' Ross Dellenger dropped an incredibly in-depth report on the project Tuesday morning, providing an abundance of information on what many seem to believe is the future of college football.
After reading over his report a few times, here's what I've concluded thus far.
What is Project Rudy?
Named after the famous Notre Dame walk-on Rudy Ruettiger, Project Rudy is the proposed solution to the chaos that college football is currently experiencing.
Dellenger states, "Project Rudy is a Super League-esque concept — separate and more simplified than the one made public last week — that incorporates football programs of the four power conferences in a 70-team structure."
The main points to take away from this proposal are as follows:
Project Rudy Would...
- Preserve the Power Four Conferences
- Further expand the College Football Playoff (or postseason)
- Overhaul the scheduling matrix
- Create tiers for revenue distribution
- Infuse up to $9 billion of private capital into college football
Project Rudy Would Not...
- Bypass the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 (Congress would need to amend this in order for the 70 Power Four programs to legally consolidate their rights)
- Provide a solution for programs outside of the Power Four
- Guarantee that media companies would be interested in buying rights at the requested prices.
Who's behind it?
As the long-standing foundation of amateurism that has held college football up for generations comes crashing down, the pressure to share revenue with the high-profile players that make the sport so popular rises. Unless the sport's biggest programs decide to start paying coaches less and let their facilities degrade (which isn't going to happen), there must be an influx of cash flow to keep this thing afloat.
With college football in a vulnerable state, outside entities are helping the sport's decision-makers by offering capital investment and implementing "professionalized" models to replace the once-affective amateurism model that is now in shambles.
Project Rudy is the brainchild of Smash Capital, a venture capital firm headed by three individuals—Evan Richter, Kevin Mayer, and Tom Staggs—who spent years working for the Walt Disney Company.
According to Smash Capital's website, Richter worked as a member of Disney's Corporate Strategy and Business Development team, focusing on innovation and investments. Mayer is the former Chairman of Disney Direct-to-Consumer and International; he was responsible for launching Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu. Finally, Staggs—who spent 27 years at Disney—was most recently the Chief Operating Officer for the House of Mouse.
According to Dellenger's report, the trio's expertise in the world of media and relationships with private investments have "distinguished" their super-league model (i.e., Project Rudy) among college administrators.
How would it work?
According to Dellenger's report, Project Rudy is built on two concepts that would aim to increase revenue from television networks and corporate sponsorships.
Concept 1: Allow for more meetings between power conference teams by:
- Eliminating all games against Group of Five and FCS opponents.
- Further expansion of the Playoff
- Scheduling more meetings between "blue blood" programs
Concept 2: Consolidate media rights of the 70 Power Four schools into one agreement rather than a separate agreement for every conference (and Notre Dame).
The discussed revenue distribution tiers would hinge on the success of the two concepts mentioned above. According to Dellenger, the presentation projects a revenue increase of around $15 billion over 12 years thanks to:
- 1.5x more "marquee" matchups; or playoff and top-level bowl games
- 3.0x more "quality" matchups; or rivalry games and blue-blood matchups
- The elimination of games against Group of Five and FCS opponents (Currently 18% of FBS schedules, per Dellenger)
If the projections are accurate and the media rights' values skyrocket, the proposed distribution tiers would divide the Power Conference schools into three revenue levels.
Distribution Tiers - The 70 Power Four schools would divided into three tiers
- Tier 1: Top 16 schools (projected revenue of $130-$250 million)
- Tier 2: Schools ranked 17-38 ($60-$110 million)
- Tier 3: Schools ranked 39-70 ($30-$60 million)
Could this actually happen?
Getting from the current state of college football to this grandiose plan sounds terrific (for college football's elite), but how would they get there?
Under the proposal, an upfront investment of $5.3 billion in private capital—which would be borrowed from future revenue shares—would give schools the cash needed to help them transition over a three-year period. This would allow them to buy out games vs. non-Power Five programs and supplement their normal television revenue distribution.
As with any change of this magnitude, there is still strong opposition from several business people, one of whom is SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey.
Last week, Sankey clarified where he stands on a super-league format.
"I don’t want to dumb down the Southeastern Conference to be part of some Super League notion of 70 teams that some people speculate would happen," Sankey said. "They want to be us, and that’s on them to figure it out, not on me to bring myself back to Earth.”
While there are certainly people who are willing to listen to this idea and several who believe that it will eventually happen, there's still the idea that commissioners — like Sankey — wouldn't be willing to surrender their decision-making rights to an outside entity. From his perspective, why would he?
And, as former Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby told Yahoo! Sports, there's always a downside to something like this. It's never truly a win-win for everyone.
“It’s a zero-sum game,” he said. “You have one winner and one loser. Take the aggregate of the Big Ten. Those who have been traditional winners, some of them are going to have to lose.”
Something like this feels inevitable, and according to an SEC executive, it is just that.
“Will this happen eventually? Yes,” they said. “It’s all inevitable.”
Dellenger followed up by asking for a timeline, in their opinion.
So, this will happen in 15-20 years?
"Oh no," they said. "Much sooner than that."
What's next?
Obviously, there are people in place to make decisions right now who aren't crazy about this idea, regardless of how well it's been received by administrators from over 25 programs who saw the proposal over the summer.
“Of all the ideas I’ve seen, this one makes the most sense,” Miami athletic director Dan Radakovich told Yahoo! Sports. “Conferences are kept intact, commissioners still have an important and valuable role, and schools can make increased money from bigger matchups and more playoff games.”
For now, the biggest roadblock is getting Sankey and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti to sign off on the idea.
“The Smash Capital idea is brilliant,” an SEC school administrator said, “but you’ve got to convince those two guys.”
Several administrators will meet this week in Nashville for the Big Ten-SEC summit to discuss a few concepts that the leagues hope will allow them to keep college football on track without outside help.
Among the expected topics of discussion are things like:
A Big Ten-SEC Scheduling Agreement: The hope here is to pit blue-blood programs against each other in order to generate additional television revenue. However, this would require the SEC to move to a nine-game conference schedule.
Further Changes to College Football Playoff Format: This includes a proposal to have multiple automatic qualifying spots for the Big Ten and SEC.
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has been vocal about his thoughts on such a format.
“One thing is for sure: Fans don’t want an artificial championship,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark told the Houston Chronicle. “They want a real championship just like every other sport. There are no free passes. Let’s earn it.”
There are many questions still left to answer in this search for a resolution to college football's biggest issues. However, Project Rudy could be the solution — or the start of one — that everyone hopes will save the game we all love.