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Published Oct 12, 2023
Midweek Mailbag: What is OU's ceiling?
Jesse Crittenden  •  OUInsider
Beat Writer
Twitter
@jessecrittenden

Oklahoma's 34-30 win over Texas was pivotal for many reasons. It helped the Sooners redeem their shutout loss to the Longhorns last season, it paved a path to the Big 12 title game and validated Brent Venables' vision for the program.

But the win now brings an inevitable and important question. What's next?

Every week I ask for questions from OUInsider VIP subscribers for my weekly mailbag, and that seemed to be the question on many of your minds, too. In this week's Midweek Mailbag, we dive into the ceiling of this year's team, how this year's defense compares to past OU teams and if the Sooners face any challenges the rest of the way:

Question from @QuentonLee: "Honestly, where do we think this team’s ceiling is?"

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The ceiling for this team is the College Football Playoff.

There's two main reasons for that.

The biggest one is that the Sooners simply profile as a CFP contender. The Sooners are 6-0 and rank 11th in scoring defense (14 points allowed per game) and fourth in scoring offense (45.2 points per game). Typically, if a team is undefeated and ranks inside the top 20 in both scoring offense and defense at the halfway point of the season, they should be considered a title contender.

For reference, there are only five teams ranked inside the top 10 in the AP Poll that also rank in the top 20 in both scoring offense and defense: Georgia, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Oklahoma.

All five of those teams are undefeated and considered CFP contenders because they profile as such.

The other reason is that Texas is objectively the toughest opponent on the Sooners' regular-season schedule. The Longhorns are good. No other team presents that type of challenge for the Sooners the rest of the way. Assuming health and no major upsets, the Sooners will be heavy favorites in every game until the Big 12 Championship.

Now, I'm not suggesting anybody go bet their life savings that the Sooners will never lose again. The Sooners still have to get through the regular season. If the Sooners meet Texas again in the Big 12 title game, beating the Longhorns for a second time wouldn't be easy. And if the Sooners get through all of that, I'm not sure they'd be favored against the likes of Georgia or Michigan or anybody else they'd meet in the CFP.

But to put it concisely — the ceiling is a CFP berth. The path is there.

Question from @NellySooner: "Through 6 games, where does this defense statistically compare to previous OU teams?"

The basic stats and the advanced numbers all show the same thing — the Sooners' defense is better than it has been in a long time, and it's not particularly close. Here's a table looking at the basic stats for the Sooners over the past five years:

A look at the numbers for OU's defenses
PPG: points per game. YPG: yards per game.
YearScoring defenseTotal defensePassing defenseRushing defenseTakeaways

2023

14.0 ppg

353.7 ypg

239.2 ypg

114.5 ypg

2.5 per game

2022

30.0 ppg

461.0 ypg

273.5 ypg

187.5 ypg

1.6 per game

2021

27.9 ppg

408.6 ypg

273.3 ypg

135.3 ypg

1.8 per game

2020

23.9 ppg

372.4 ypg

262.0 ypg

110.4 ypg

1.8 per game

2019

28.3 ppg

357.8 ypg

218.8 ypg

139 ypg

0.6 per game

— The two big things that jump off the screen is points per game and takeaways. Yes, the Sooners haven't played an elite offense outside of Texas. But OU's scoring defense is wildly impressive. Also, if this takeaway rate continues, it'd be the highest for the Sooners since 2008.

— The fairest thing I can say is that the 2020 defense finished the season with decent numbers. Otherwise, OU's defenses have been putrid, and that includes last season. The one-year jump the Sooners have shown this season is nothing short of spectacular.

— One thing this graph doesn't show is things like third-down defense and red-zone defense. The Sooners have still given up a few chunk plays this year, but the team's ability to get off the field has been key to not surrendering points. The Sooners rank 12th in third-down defense (28.9%) and ninth in red-zone defense, surrendering touchdowns on just 3 of 11 trips. The Sooners struggled significantly in both areas in past years.

— The simplest way to say it: Past defenses actively held the Sooners back. This year, it's a strength. The Sooners are better in nearly evert statistical category than they've been in quite some time.

Question from SoonerinKansas1: "In past years, I feel like OU fans felt like, 'Okay, what is the one team we are going to slip up against?' What is it about this year's team that makes you think it isn't going to happen again?

You're right. During Lincoln Riley's tenure, there was almost always an unexpected loss.

But think about it. What was the common denominator in all of those losses?

The Sooners gave up a billion points in those games. Whether it was the 38-31 home loss to Iowa State or the 48-41 loss to Kansas State in 2019, the Sooners' defense ultimately let them down.

Case in point — the Sooners lost nine regular season games from 2016 to 2021, a period where they were perennial title contenders. In those losses, the Sooners surrendered an average of 38.2 points per game.

I just don't see this year's defense having that type of let down.

Kansas' offense is legitimate (36 points per game), though the situation with quarterback Jalon Daniels is alarming. If I had to pick a potential slip-up game, it's that one. It's in Lawrence against a Jayhawk team that would love nothing more than to beat the Sooners on their way out the door. I guess the trip to Stillwater could be a concern, too, simply because the atmosphere will be insane and Bedlam games can be unpredictable. But I just don't see UCF, BYU, TCU or West Virginia scoring a ton of points on this defense. Also, the Texas game showed that this team is hungry and eager to prove last year was a fluke.

Of course, I could be wrong. Those unexpected losses in the past were, well, unexpected. That could certainly happen again. But this isn't the same OU team.

Question from @Tim2444444: "If you were Jeff Lebby, how would you change the offensive scheme now that Andrel Anthony is out?"

Good question. There's no sugarcoating it — Anthony undergoing season-ending surgery could hurt the offense.

On the season, Anthony ranked first in receiving yards (419), second in targets (34) and second in receptions (27). Despite his reputation as a big-play wide receiver, Anthony had actually established himself as a security blanket for Dillon Gabriel. Of Anthony's 27 receptions, 15 of them had an average depth of target of 0-9 yards, per Pro Football Focus. But Anthony was crucial down the field, too — he had 10 receptions with an average depth of target of 10 yards or more, the most on the team.

So basically, the Sooners need to replace him with someone who can roughly imitate his role in the offense. That player, to me, is clearly Nic Anderson.

Like Anthony, most of Anderson's snaps have come on the perimeter. Anderson has lined up outside on 90.0% of his snaps compared to 86.6% for Anthony. Anderson can also fill the big-play void left by Anthony. They both lead the team in receptions of 20 yards or more (both have four).

And the reality is that Anderson needed to see more snaps anyways. Despite leading the team in touchdowns with six, Anderson has just 11 receptions and has only played 164 snaps, per PFF. That's an average of 27.3 snaps per game.

But I'm not sure Anderson can mimic Anthony's threat in the short areas of the field. Only 2 of Anderson's 13 targets have come with an average depth of target of nine yards or fewer. But Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops can.

Despite a couple of big performances this season, Farooq is just third on the team in targets (32). The offense could stand to get Farooq more involved.

We could also see a bit more from Jayden Gibson and other guys like Gavin Freeman and Brenen Thompson. But Anthony's absence should lead to a big uptick in snaps for Anderson and more involvement from Stoops and Farooq.

I also am confident the Sooners will rely even more on Gabriel's rushing ability. After recording 20 carries the first three games, Gabriel has 34 carries in the last three games and his rushing ability was crucial in the win over Texas. The trend was likely going to continue regardless, but without Anthony I expect will see even more from Gabriel in the running game.