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Published Oct 25, 2024
OU-Ole Miss preview with RebelGrove's Neal McCready
Jesse Crittenden  •  OUInsider
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Oklahoma is coming off a 26-point loss to South Carolina, and oddsmakers have predicted things won't get any better this weekend.

The Sooners are a 20.5-point underdog at Ole Miss this Saturday (11 a.m. CT, ESPN). The Rebels (5-2) are coming off a really tough loss to LSU in overtime, and they really need a win to stay in the hunt for an SEC championship and, possibly, the College Football Playoff.

To discuss Ole Miss' season so far and its chances against the Sooners, here's some insight from RebelGrove's Neal McCready:

Obviously, it’s been a tough stretch for Ole Miss to start conference play. What’s the general vibe in Oxford right now? Is there frustration or is there optimism that a bounce back is coming?

Neal McCready: The general vibe seems to alternate between depression and hope. This was/is a playoffs-or-bust season, and the loss to Kentucky in late September was the first sign that the “bust” portion of that equation could be in play. Then, after a dominant win at South Carolina, hope returned with vigor. Then came the loss in overtime at LSU.

Ole Miss dominated that game early and yet only led the Tigers at the half, 17-13. Ole Miss had chances to make it a two-score game in the second half and didn’t do it. Then LSU drove 75 yards on 13 plays in the final minutes to tie things and force overtime. You know the rest.

So now, to get to the CFP, Ole Miss has to run the table, and the table includes Georgia. So yeah, there’s still some optimism, but pessimism/anger/depression/despair is kicking optimism’s ass right now.

The numbers for Ole Miss’ offense are elite, but you mentioned that there have been some struggles against SEC teams. Is it as simple as having struggles against good defenses?

Neal McCready: Ole Miss opened with a quartet of Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern, and the Rebels put up some gaudy numbers against those clubs. Turns out, those games masked some deficiencies. Against SEC teams — Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU — Ole Miss has struggled up front in pass protection and the running game has been sporadic. Fans have wondered why Ulysses Bentley IV, the leading rusher off last year’s 11-2 team, was basically shelved for the first half of the season in favor of Miami transfer Henry Parrish Jr. and former walk-on Matt Jones. It was/is a fair question.

The offensive line has suffered some injuries that have limited its effectiveness — a couple of those guys appear close to returning, maybe as early as Saturday — and subsequently, the passing game has struggled getting untracked against SEC foes. Jaxson Dart has been sacked a lot, hurried a lot and several receivers with excellent track records — Jordan Watkins, Caden Prieksorn, Dae’Quan Wright — haven’t been big parts of the attack.

Suddenly, Ole Miss followers are wondering the unthinkable, which is: Is this team just not good enough offensively to reach its potential?

Statistically, Jaxson Dart has been one of the best and most explosive quarterbacks in football. How would you evaluate the way he’s played this season?

Neal McCready: He’s played well. He has left some points on the table with decision-making, and at times he’s seemed to lock in one receiver (usually, Tre Harris), but some of that is likely not his fault. Again, he’s gotten hit a lot and I think that has impacted his timing and decision-making. Dart is tough as nails and is a fierce competitor, and sometimes I wonder if he tries to do too much. In an ideal world, he would go through his reads and take what the defense gives him, but he’s a guy who cares so much about winning and playing well that he occasionally tries to put the team on his back. That — and the offensive line breakdowns — have led to some plays I suspect he’d love to have back.

It seems like the defense has improved significantly over the last couple of seasons, particularly at stopping the run. What has contributed to such a turnaround on defense?

Neal McCready: Money. I’m kidding, sort of. Ole Miss went out in the portal and addressed its defensive deficiencies, adding guys like Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, Pooh Paul and Trey Amos. Throw in the return of JJ Pegues, Suntarine Perkins, TJ Dottery, Jared Ivey and Trey Amos and you have a pretty talented defense.

Also, it’s Year 2 for defensive coordinator Pete Golding, so there’s some continuity that’s allowed guys to play faster.

The Rebels’ defense plays with an edge and they can stop teams multiple possessions at a time. They’ve given up three critical fourth-down conversions this fall that threaten to haunt them after the season, but all in all, defense has been this team’s calling card.

And, as I referenced earlier, that’s not entirely a good thing when the head coach in Lane Kiffin and the quarterback is a third-year starter throwing to what was supposed to be an electric receiving corps.

Ole Miss is essentially a three-touchdown favorite. Can Ole Miss cover the spread?

I think the line is too big. I think Ole Miss wins, but I can’t just count on this offense lighting up an SEC defense until I see it, and I think Oklahoma’s defense is legitimately good.

I think Oklahoma will struggle mightily on offense — Brent Venables called the offense “an abomination” earlier this week — against Ole Miss’ defense, but I do think the Sooners’ defense will give the Rebels some issues.

Like I said, I think Ole Miss wins, but 19.5 points — or whatever it is right now — feels too high. I’ll go:

Ole Miss 27, Oklahoma 10

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