OU Softball: Preview, prediction, numbers to know vs. Florida State

NORMAN — After advancing through Regional play with wins over Cleveland State and Oregon, No. 2 Oklahoma (52-6) will turn up the intensity as they welcome No. 15 seed Florida State 46-14) to the Norman Super Regional this weekend.

In a rematch of the 2023 National Championship series, the Sooners and Seminoles will duke it out in a best-of-three series to determine who will advance to Oklahoma City and punch their ticket to the the 2024 Women's College World Series.

The series at Love's Field will begin on Thursday at 6:00 p.m. CT, with coverage on ESPN2. Game 2 of the Norman Super Regional is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. on Friday and the if-necessary Game 3 will be played on Saturday with a start time and network TBA.

Heading into the weekend, Bryan Clinton and Jesse Crittenden examine some of the key statistics, players and factors that will determine whether OU or FSU advances to next week:

Jesse: 84

Florida State has stolen 84 bases this season on 99 attempts. That's the seventh-most stolen bases among all Power 5 teams.

Once the Seminoles are on base — which is a lot, considering they have the sixth-highest on-base percentage in the entire country — they ramp up the aggression. But they're affinity for stealing bases hasn't come at the expense of their power hitting. They blast 1.45 home runs per game, which ranks 10th nationally, joining Texas as the only Power 5 teams with at least 84 stolen bases and 84 home runs.

The Seminoles' offense has been potent all season, and they can beat their opponents in a variety of ways. The Sooners will have to prepare for everything, especially the Seminoles' tendency to be aggressive on the base paths.

Bryan: 20.2

That's the number of innings that freshman Florida State pitcher Ashtyn Danley (3.12 ERA) has pitched against Top 25 scoring offenses this season. In that stretch, Danley has allowed 23 runs (18 earned) on 29 hits with 11 BBs and 17 Ks.

That translates to a 6.09 ERA and a 1.55 K/BB ratio. While Oklahoma's offense has been streaky at times over the last month or so, the Noles' top arm isn't on the same level as someone like Lexi Kilfoyl (1.08 ERA) or Citlaly Gutierrez (1.58 ERA).

Danley leads Florida State with 137.0 IP this year and will undoubtedly get the ball against the Sooners. However, asking her to come into Norman and quiet the OU offense could prove a tall task.

Jesse: Amaya Ross, INF

Ross has been the do-it-all offensive player for the Seminoles this season.

She's not FSU's most effective hitter (.324% batting average), but she's found other ways to be a contributor She's third on the team in walks (30) with an on-base percentage of .453%. But most importantly, she leads the team in total runs with 61, eight more than the next closest player.

The biggest reason is her aggressiveness as a base runner. She has 28 stolen bases, 12 more than the next closest player, on 31 attempts. Only one other player has more than nine on the team.

It'll be imperative for the Sooners to keep Ross from finding first base.

Bryan: Jaysoni Beachum, INF

The Seminoles have an absolute stud in the making with Beachum, who leads her team in batting average (.424), hits (77), RBI (65), total bases (135), and on-base percentage (.516) as a freshman. If the Noles are going to pull off an upset in this series, it'll come off the bat of Beachum, who is also tied for the team lead with 15 home runs.

Beachum has started all 60 games for Florida State this year and will serve as the heart of the lineup for an offensive attack that ranks sixth nationally in scoring (7.52).

Last week, she went just 2-of-9 (.222) at the plate with two runs and a single RBI. Don't expect that to continue this week, though, as the Seminoles will need their best players to be at the top of their game if they hope to keep playing.

Jesse: Cydney Sanders, 1B

If there's any opportunity for Sanders to find a rhythm, it's this weekend.

Sanders leads the team in home runs (13) and she's second in walks (40), but she's batting just .122% since March 22. In the postseason, she's just one of nine at the plate. It's been a prolonged slump for the junior, who was a significant part of the Sooners' championship run last season.

OU coach Patty Gasso mentioned on Tuesday that the team really needs to find a spark at the back of the lineup, and that starts with Sanders. Considering FSU's collective ERA of 3.6, Sanders should be in line for a huge bounce-back series.

The Sooners could really use that.

Bryan: Ella Parker, DP

With all the star power a college softball team could ever ask for, it's actually been one of Oklahoma's new faces that has grabbed the spotlight in recent weeks. Freshman slugger Ella Parker has come into her own as the postseason intensity starts to rise, and it's easy to see why so many folks around the program are ecstatic about her future.

Heading into the Super Regionals, Parker ranks second on the team in batting average (.413), RBI (57), and on-base percentage (.516), and third in total bases (112), runs (56), slugging (.747) and OPS (1.263).

Since the beginning of the Big 12 Championship, Parker 12-of-21 (.571) with nine runs, 10 RBI, and two home runs.

Jesse: Kelly Maxwell dominates in the circle

The Sooners' undisputed ace will be needed more than ever this weekend. The Seminoles rank inside the top 10 nationally in runs per game (7.51), on-base percentage (.421%), batting average (.336) and slugging percentage (.581%).

Yes, the OU offense will need to keep on the scoreboard. But the Seminoles haven't faced many pitchers like Maxwell, who has been lights out during the postseason. In 17.1 innings, she's given up just seven hits and three total runs while striking out 19 batters.

The Sooners will have other questions outside of Maxwell. Do they lean on Nicole May, who pitched really well last weekend against Oregon? Do the Sooners call on Kierston Deal or Karlie Keeney?

Those are important things to figure out. But none of it is as crucial as Maxwell pitching at her best.

If she does, the Sooners will make it back to Oklahoma City.

Bryan: OU's senior sluggers find their groove at the plate

We're approaching the end of the illustrious careers of several Sooners, including Jayda Coleman, Tiare Jennings, Kinzie Hansen, and Alyssa Brito, as the 2024 WCWS creeps ever closer.

While that group has still been incredibly successful overall, it feels like we haven't seen their best at Love's Field just yet. If that changes this weekend, there's not much Florida State could do to keep the Sooners from advancing.

As I mentioned earlier, Ella Parker has been the lightning rod for this offense as of late, so if we see the quartet of Coleman, Jennings, Hansen, and Brito get into a rhythm and start to pile up hits again, the offense can go nuclear.

Right now, Rylie Boone leads the Sooners with a .416 average, but she has 24 RBI on the year. OU's bigger bats are due for a breakout weekend, and that might very well be their final series at Love's Field.

Jesse: Maxwell struggles, and the others can't limit FSU's offense

Florida State's offense has a had a few rare moments where its struggled. Most notably, they lost to Texas 10-0 back in mid-March. But otherwise, the Seminoles' offense has been one of the best in the country.

That puts a ton of pressure on OU's offense, but more so on Maxwell's shoulders.

Maxwell will almost certainly start Game 1 on Thursday, and will likely be held out on Friday in preparation of a potential do-or-die game on Saturday, which would put the fifth-year senior back in the circle. That means Maxwell will be in the circle for the vast majority of this series.

If she can't get it going, that's bad news against a high-powered FSU offense. But it also can't just be Maxwell who finds a rhythm. Someone else on OU's pitching staff is going to have to step up, particularly on Friday.

If Maxwell isn't at her best, or if someone else can't step up, the Sooners are gonna have hard time winning this series.

Bryan: OU can't find its offense

After taking a deeper look at this matchup, it feels like it would take quite the no-show from Oklahoma for them to get eliminated by Florida State this weekend. The Seminoles offense is plenty good enough to give OU fits, but their pitching staff and defense just aren't at the levels that we've seen in recent years.

With that being said, Oklahoma isn't nearly the dominant force that it's been in each of the last two seasons. Because of that, the margin for error is much smaller for the 2024 version of the Sooners. We've seen OU's offense go missing for stretches this season, particularly in the confines of Love's Field. If that were to continue this weekend, it could spell trouble.

Behind Kelly Maxwell, there should be concern about the Sooners' pitching staff facing such a potent FSU offense. With the No. 6 scoring offense in the nation, there are just times when the Noles are going to have success at the plate. So, if that happens, and OU can only muster two or three runs against a vulnerable pitching staff for FSU, this team could certainly find itself in a dogfight. At that point, all bets are off.

Jesse: Sooners sweep, but it won't be a cake walk

Gasso made a point on Tuesday to say that her team knows it hasn't played its best softball yet.

This weekend, that should change.

I expect the Sooners' offense to have no real issues this series. Florida State's pitching staff just hasn't been great this season, and the Sooners know this is when they have to be firing on all cylinders. There's no reason to expect Maxwell to struggle too much in Game 1, leading the Sooners to a comfortable win on Thursday.

However, I'd guess Game 2 is a slightly different story. With Maxwell likely not in the circle, and FSU facing elimination, I expect the Seminoles to score some runs, forcing the Sooners' offense to find timely hits. OU wins in a close one to secure the series and punch their ticket to the Women's College World Series.

The Sooners have more talent and the more complete team. If they're at their best, they should win. But let's make one thing clear: If the Sooners aren't on point, the Seminoles absolutely have the firepower to make this an interesting weekend.

Bryan: Sooners Win, 2-0

When we first found out that Oklahoma could potentially end up facing Florida State in the Supers, my initial reaction was, "Wow, that seems like a tough draw for the No. 2 seed." Then, I took a look at how the Noles have won games this season as opposed to what we've seen from them over the past few years.

This version of the Seminoles is vulnerable both in the circle and in the field. That simply wasn't the case in either of the two seasons in which they played OU for a National Championship in OKC. Those teams were complete, and if it weren't for the Sooners, they would've been National Champs.

The 2024 version of FSU just doesn't look like a title contender, and in a field where I could see seven or eight teams realistically winning it all, that's a problem. I think OU takes care of business this weekend, and the hype leading up to this matchup is squashed pretty quickly with a dominant win in Game 1 and a closer but still comfortable win in Game 2.

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