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Published Feb 25, 2025
Hoops: How OU is handling being on the NCAA Tournament bubble
Jesse Crittenden  •  OUInsider
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NORMAN — Oklahoma's position in the NCAA Tournament field appeared very secure just a few weeks ago. But after a rough five-game losing streak that included four losses by at least 18 points, the Sooners are back on the fringes of the tournament projections.

It's a position OU head coach Porter Moser is very familiar with.

The Sooners (17-10, 4-10 SEC) have spent much of the last three seasons on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament before eventually being left out. That was particularly true last season, when the Sooners lost six of their final eight games and were officially listed as the First Team Out of the tournament.

That's been the case the last couple of weeks, too. Last weekend, ESPN had the Sooners projected among the First Four Out for the first time this season before their huge 93-87 win over then-No. 21 Mississippi State. Since then, the Sooners have been listed as one of the Last Four Byes.

With just four regular-season games remaining — including Wednesday's home matchup with No. 17 Kentucky (8 p.m. SEC Network) — Moser knows these last couple of weeks are critical to keeping their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

“The only thing I told them this year this is an NCAA Tournament game," Moser said. "When you’re in the NCAA Tournament, everything matters. It’s win, advance. That’s what it is. It’s an NCAA Tournament-level game. For us, we got to be on point defensively.

"But for us, I think the guys understood when our confidence is cracked a little bit, so is your resilience. I know you heard me say that before, but I really saw it. When Mississippi State was up, we fought back. Then we fought back again. We talked about it with our guys: That looked like the resiliency we had in some of our other big games earlier in the year. That’s what we got to build on with our guys."

When the Sooners are playing at their best, they've shown they're a worthy NCAA Tournament team. Their win over Mississippi State gave them their fifth Quad 1 victory of the season, and their early-season wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan continue to look impressive on their resume. One common thread from those wins has been the performances from Jeremiah Fears, who posted 27 points and 10 assists in the win over Mississippi State.

But the Sooners have struggled with consistency, which is a big reason why they've fallen to the bubble. That was particularly the case in the home loss to LSU (14-13, 3-11 SEC) earlier this month, when the Sooners led by five points with 24 seconds to go before collapsing late.

Despite being on the bubble, the Sooners' chances to make the NCAA Tournament remain relatively high. Team Rankings gives the Sooners an 80% chance to make the postseason, which would snap a three-year drought. Part of that is the remaining schedule — the Sooners have two games left against teams currently in the AP Top 25, and most projections have the SEC earning as many as 13 bids for the tournament.

There's been some tough moments in conference play, but the Sooners have remained positive about their chances.

“Everybody knows these wins going down the line could really help push into the tournament," OU guard Kobe Elvis said. "We’re all extremely positive, extremely optimistic about the opportunities ahead.”

If the Sooners can snag just a couple more wins, their place in the NCAA Tournament field could be secure ahead of Selection Sunday on March 16.

"I’m not mincing words with our guys: This is an NCAA Tournament game," Moser said. "We know the stakes. You got an NCAA Tournament team in Kentucky, one of the best teams in the country, and everything matters — taking care of the ball, execution, blocking out. Everything matters when you’re in the NCAA Tournament. You know you’re playing a great team, small margin for error, and the stakes are high.

"I want them to feel like that more than the pressure of a bubble watch. That’s kind of been the message.”

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