Editor's note: This addition to OU Insider VIP is in Year 3 and is set to be the best series yet! Each week I put a bow on the previous game then transition to the upcoming game. Per usual, there will be “bold predictions” at the bottom and I implore you to add your own in the message board replies.
Each year the comments immediate ask “Where are the recipes, Grill Boy??”. Well, this year I am giving you just that! Each week I will be filming a step-by-step tutorial on how to make a dish that coordinates with the opponent for that week. This will live on the OUInsider YouTube Channel.
ALABAMA REVIEW
Each year the comments immediate ask “Where are the recipes, Grill Boy??”. Well, this year I am giving you just that! Each week I will be filming a step-by-step tutorial on how to make a dish that coordinates with the opponent for that week. This will live on the OUInsider YouTube Channel.
1. Last week I said “There is likely one path to victory for Oklahoma this week. That path is narrow and winding. That path has obstacles you have to avoid. That path includes stopping Jalen Milroe’s legs and living and dying with his arm. In SEC play Milroe has throw five touchdowns and six interceptions. In the Tide’s most recent loss, Tennessee held Milroe to 11 yards rushing and forced him to throw it 45 times. That’s the recipe for success defensively. In the LSU blowout, Milroe rushed for a whopping 185 yards and four touchdowns. Luckily, Oklahoma’s run defense looks a heckuva lot more like Tennessee’s than it does LSU’s. Tennessee ranks #1 nationally in defensive rushing efficiency. Oklahoma ranks #2 in that category. LSU ranks 82rd which is good for second-to-last in the SEC. Limit the effectiveness of Milroe’s legs and you stay on the narrow path to victory.”
Oklahoma followed this better than I could’ve imagined. How about 7 yards on 15 carries? Also, Oklahoma fans have seen their rushing totals decimated by sack yardage. Oklahoma was only credited with ONE sack, so that 7 yards isn’t deceptive. I had belief in OU’s rushing defense, but that was truly a signature performance. Oklahoma was willing to live and die with Milroe’s arm, and they lived WELL.
2. Last week I said “Another thing you MUST do to say on that narrow path is something the Sooners have failed miserably to do all season. They MUST hold on to the football. This is a highly opportunistic defense coming in to Norman. They’re riding a three-game streak of forcing three or more turnovers. They are licking their chops imagining Arnold, Tatum, and Bowen’s ball security issues. If Oklahoma is to stay on the path, they will have to keep the ball out of harm’s way. In a recent interview, Xavier Robinson told reporters that he, Brent, and DeMarco had revisited the redshirt conversation and they were going to burn it. I expect Robinson to get a heavy workload because I will lose my mind if they burn his redshirt for a handful of carries. My strategy for keeping the ball out of harm’s way would be to hand the ball off to Xavier Robinson and Jovontae Barnes (if available) a combined 50+ times. I know that sounds dramatic, but if this Alabama defense has a weakness, it's the interior of their run defense. You can run between the tackles on this unit. Shorten the game with the run offense. Stick with the run. Protect the ball. Catch the punts. Don’t commit stupid penalties. If those five things happen, you’re still going to be on that narrow path.
Oklahoma went 5/5 on this one.
1. Shorten the game with the run offense? Against Mizzou the defense defended 12 drives. Against Alabama they defended 9. I am not counting the “drive” in the waning seconds of the first half. Alabama only ran 57 plays.
2. Stick with the run. For the first time in SEC play OU stuck with what was working and was rewarded for it. Xavier Robinson was a man amongst boys and was just now named SEC Freshman of the Week for his 18 carry, 102 yard, 2 TD performance.
3. Protect the ball. Taylor Tatum’s fumble was met with a spot on the bench. Oklahoma won the turnover battle by 2.
4. Catch the punts. Done.
5. Don’t commit stupid penalties. Oklahoma only had 20 yards of worth of penalties.
3. Last week I also said "Eli Bowen has been one of the few bright spots of this season. He got mossed on a highlight reel toe tap by Theo Wease, but he was in perfect position. He had kept Luther Burden relatively quiet, until Luther made that big play late to set up the touchdown. But that wasn’t on Bowen. That was on Jacobe Johnson. I think those two are still likely your best options going in to this game. Eli is the best cover corner available, and Johnson is such a physical presence that can go up and catch a jump ball if he’s in position due to his background as a wide receiver. As wild as it sounds, a game after calling for true freshman Eli Bowen to shadow All-American Luther Burden, I want Bowen shadowing freshman phenom Ryan Williams. He’s made defenders look silly all year and he has bailed out an often inaccurate Milroe repeatedly. If I’m going to go down to Ryan Williams and Jalen Milroe in the passing game, I’m going to go down with Eli Bowen trying his best.”
Eli Bowen is a star. He perfectly read a quick bubble and slipped a block to put himself in perfect position for an interception. He made a big tackle on Milroe to hold him short of the line to gain after Milroe escaped the pocket. He covers. He tackles. He understands leverage. He gets off blocks. He catches the ball.
4. At this point I’m just rehashing my actual words because its exactly what I want to talk about in the review anyways! Last week I said “Don’t look now, but we’re starting to get some of that elusive continuity on the offensive line! It only took spring ball, fall camp, and the majority of the season to get there, but we did it! The offensive line issues from early in the year have undoubtedly cause Jackson to see ghosts, as he continues to put his eyes down and leave even clean pockets, but hopefully the bye week film sessions showed him that he can trust it a bit more. Logan Howland and Heath Ozaeta have both improved by leaps and bounds since we saw them at Ole Miss and Tennessee, respectively. I can’t imagine where they’ll be if they finish this season holding down the left side, then get all offseason to work together over there as well.”
Heath Ozaeta and Logan Howland played every snap. Per PFF, Logan Howland did not allow a sack or QB hurry in pass protection. Per PFF, Logan Howland was the highest rated OL. Febechi Nwaiwu was named the SEC Offensive Lineman of the week. I guess I say all of that to say this: Bill Bedenbaugh is still an elite developer and once these guys got some continuity they played their best game of the season. Ozaeta and Howland looked like completely different players since they made their debuts earlier in the season. Some said the OL room had “no P4 talent” so they’d have to hit the portal heavily. I say roll with what you have. MAYBE take one interior guy. But there is talent in that room and Bill Bedenbaugh will develop it.
5. I might as well keep the streak alive. Last week I closed with “This game is going to be a bit emotional inside that locker room and all around the stadium. Danny Stutsman, Ethan Downs, Billy Bowman, Woodi Washington, and others will be taking their last-ever snaps on Owen Field. This particular group of seniors are the last of the Riley holdovers. Brent Venables commended their loyalty in a recent press conference. Danny specifically has become the face of the program after the last couple years. Imagine telling someone in 2017 that a linebacker would soon be the face of Oklahoma Football. At some point “Da-nny Stuts-man” chants will rain down and it will be a great moment. If there was ever a time for the defense to stand tall one last time at home, wouldn’t it be the perfect fairytale to do it against the program that’s dominated the sport for the decade plus? On national television? Danny Stutsman might have to break his single game tackle record that he just set last week, and shut down Milroe repeatedly. But then again, he IS the highest rated linebacker in the entire country when it comes to run defense grade. I can’t think of a better opportunity to leave an exclamation mark.”
Talk about an exclamation mark. Talk about a fairytale Senior night. Danny set the tone early when he shed a block and popped Jalen Milroe at the line of scrimmage. He was masterful in his execution of the gameplan from a communication standpoint. He didn’t have to stuff the stat sheet, but its partly due to not having to defend nearly as many plays as usual. While I’m typing this, Danny has been named as a Butkus Award Finalist. There are four other finalists. There is only one other SEC backer. So, if that tracks with some of what the rest of the media might think, Danny may have a First Team All-SEC and All-American, Butkus winner type of final chapter. Ethan Downs had a big sack late and lived in the backfield. Billy played every snap and had a key PBU. Woodi sealed the game with a late interception of Milroe. It was a night none of them, and none of us will ever forget.
LSU MEAL PREP
1. This game feels a bit more attainable after a blowout of Alabama, doesn’t it? Perhaps this coaching staff learned how to make a simple game plan and stick to it. The game plan for this matchup? More of the same. RUN THE DAMN BALL. The only teams in the SEC that are giving up more yards on the ground than LSU are Florida and Mississippi State. Xavier Robinson just burst onto the scene as the SEC Freshman of the Week. Oklahoma rushed for 260 yards on Alabama. Based on my quick research, Alabama hasn’t given up 260 yards rushing since the 2022 Iron Bowl. This is a squad that ran the ball 36 times for 34 yards against Tennessee. But a much-maligned QB and a true freshman RB went behind the worst statistical offensive line of Bill Bedenbuagh’s career and beat the brakes off of the Alabama run defense. Go do that against LSU and send Brian Kelly into the postseason with his head spinning. Conversely, go gain a metric ton of credibility, confidence, and momentum heading into the bowl.
2. In Brian Kelly’s press conference he noted that in the win against Vanderbilt his Tigers only had one negative play. In the previous week’s loss to Florida his Tigers had fourteen negative plays. Now, some of that may simply be a product of the opponent. Florida is 40th in the country in tackles for loss and Vanderbilt is tied for 69th. Florida is 23rd in the country in sacks and Vanderbilt is tied for 58th. Oklahoma is 5th nationally in TFL’s and tied for 11th in sacks. Needless to say, if Brian Kelly wants to minimize the negative plays for his Tigers on Saturday he may need to pray R Mason Thomas misses the flight. RMT and the Sooners logged a sack and nine TFL’s against the Tide. When it comes to escapability and athleticism, going from Jalen Milroe to Garrett Nussmeier is akin to going from Lamar Jackson to Kirk Cousins. Thanks to the NCAA counting sacks as negative rushing yards, Nussmeier has -38 rushing yards on the year. Yes, that is correct. He has netted a negative 38 yards. If Oklahoma can get past that stout offensive line, they could have him flustered with no way to escape.
3. Brent Venables and Brian Kelly handle press conferences so differently. Brian Kelly starts and ends with jokes that never seem to land. He is often short and monotone. His press conferences themselves are very short and serious. He comes across as a guy who is still trying to convince the room that he’s the right guy for the job. Stan Drayton had a bit of the same vibe to him and now Stan has been fired from Temple. I’m not saying Kelly is about to be fired, he’s just so awkward. From the viral recruit dancing video to faking a southern accent when he was introduced as the new head coach at an LSU Basketball game, he seems like such a try hard. Today Brent took blame for “hiring the wrong guy” to be OC in the last offseason. He joked about Teddy Lehman missing his assignment against Kansas State over 20 years ago. Brent went even further back to 1999 to compare Xavier Robinson’s depth chart situation to Quentin Griffin. He described his late night Taco Bell run after the Alabama game that caused them to pull over so the kitchen could make the $94 dollar order. He struggled to identify the Crunch Wrap Supreme and described it instead. When he spoke about Kip Lewis he called him his “Juice Whisperer”. Venables talked about when he’s mad at the world and feeling sorry for himself Kip’s got a light inside of him and cheers him up. Brent’s pressers feel like a guy telling stories and sharing memories with a bunch of old friends. I say all of that to say this: LSU and Oklahoma have both had disappointing seasons relative to their lofty expectations. Oklahoma has six wins and LSU has seven. This may come down to who wants it more. Who wants to go win a game for their coach. I may be biased, but “let’s go win one for Brian Kelly” just doesn’t have the same believability to it as “let’s go win one for Brent Venables”.
4. Since Brian Kelly has been at LSU, the Tigers are 18-2 at home. They are 14-1 when those games are played in the evening. This isn’t just a Brian Kelly thing. Since 1960 LSU has won 78.7% of their night games at Tiger Stadium. Compare that to winning 52.6% of their home day games and you’re dealing with something very real. Lane Kiffin called the SEC out a month ago for always giving LSU night games. I’ve heard some say that oddsmakers value a primetime slot at home for LSU as three points. I have only seen one game in Death Valley, but it was a 2:30 kick. There are a ton of people. I believe the official numbers are right around 102,000. When they break out in “Callin’ Baton Rouge”, you feel every last one of them. Many OU fans remember negative experiences at the 2004 Sugar Bowl. Some have even gone so far as swearing off ever making the trip to Baton Rouge. A good friend of mine said he may not make the trip in fear of getting arrested during a brawl. Either way, I am not expecting a record away crowd on Thanksgiving weekend so far away. But those that are going better keep their head on a swivel, because while it is the most exciting home environment in college football, it's also the most hostile.
5. If Oklahoma is going to finish this nightmare season off with two improbable wins, they’re going to have to defend a MUCH better passer than Jalen Milroe. Garrett Nussmeier is 2nd in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns on the season. He’s coming off of a 332 yard performance against Vanderbilt where he completed passes to nine different pass catchers. I’m not even sure Oklahoma will have nine scholarship pass catchers available for this one. The balanced attack is where Garrett butters his bread. LSU has three players with over 51 receptions on the year, but none over 55. That’s impossibly balanced. So you can’t just throw Freshman phenom on their top dog and call it good. You’re going to need disciplined safety play from the usual suspects. Billy Bowman and Robert Spears-Jennings have to have big days. Malone, Jacobe, Woodi, Kani, and everyone else is going to have to pitch in if the pass rush can’t get home consistently against a unit that has given up the least amount of sacks in the SEC. If Oklahoma can’t get Nussmeier on the ground, they’ll have to force him into mistakes. He’s second in the SEC only to blind-man Beck in interceptions with eleven.
LSU SCORE PREDICTION
He’s second in the SEC only to blind-man Beck in interceptions with eleven.
Each week we’ll see if anyone can nail the exact score. If you do, I’ll try and get Parker to send you some mens skincare product or something. (I have not discussed this with him, but I can at least try!)
My prediction:
Oklahoma 24
LSU 20
BOLD PREDICTIONS
Throughout the season we will do bold predictions for each game. I will start us off, and then I will ask the members to give me some bold predictions in the comments. From the member-produced predictions, I’ll add any that came true to the next article.
Best predictions from last week:
@TravisSkol said “Xavier Robinson matches his season total in one game with 15 carries” Thank God this one hit because he was cooking. He had 18 carries.
@OUModGuy said “XRob runs for over 100 yards” I feel like Robinson going to cash a lot of these in.
@LesWilson79 said “We will hold Milroe to under 65 yards rushing.” Milroe had SEVEN yards rushing.
@LesWilson79 said “We will have over 150 yards rushing” How about 260?!
My predictions for this week:
1. Xavier Robinson scores on the ground and through the air. I’m all in on this kid.
2. Eli Bowen has another pick. These bold predictions are brought to you by true freshmen.