In this weekly series, I put a bow on the previous game then transition to the upcoming opponent. Since it is Week 11, we will discuss WVU, preview BYU and make some bold predictions.
REVIEW
1. The last few weeks I’ve started this piece with my thoughts on Jeff Lebby. In media sessions after the game, he’d said that he doesn’t listen to the social media or fan noise. He’s taking the “don’t take criticism from people you wouldn’t seek out for advice” approach. That’s what you like to hear, as social media has tried to fire a different coordinator at OU for each of the past three seasons. What’s weird is that I simply don’t believe him. The play calling against West Virginia looked nothing like what we saw during previous games. Drake Stoops (more on him in a second) didn’t have one target behind the line of scrimmage, we ran the ball effectively with Gavin Sawchuk, and we even used the tight end! To summarize, Lebby stuck with what was working, and he has had tendencies to get away from what was working in the past. The result was Oklahoma’s highest offensive output since September 29th, 2018 when Kyler Murray and the boys put up 66 points on the Baylor Bears. I have my own predictions of what Lebby is doing in 2024, but maybe that performance was enough to get the For Sale signs out of his yard.
2. Barring something insane happening, Dillon Gabriel will not be receiving an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony. That shouldn’t take away from what has been the best season of his historically-prolific career. Dillon now sits at No. 10 on the all-time passing yards list. Depending on how many games he has left this year, he could climb as high as #7. Many are saying, 'Well he’s been in college forever”, but that’s a lazy dismissal of his impressive output. Dillon is in his fifth year, but he played a shortened Covid season and also missed nearly an entire season with a collarbone injury. He’s played 48 games, or the equivalent of four regular seasons. He’s played nine less games than Bo Nix, ten less games than Sam Hartman, and five less games than Burnt-Orange-Jesus Colt McCoy. He has scored 36 total touchdowns this year, completed over 70% of his passes, and ranks fourth nationally in quarterback rating. He just set a single-game school record with 8 touchdowns and he didn’t do it against East Popcorn Tech. I say all of that to say this: I think it’s wild that Sooner Fans want to push out one of the most efficient, historically prolific and experienced quarterbacks in the country as we head into the SEC so we can turn to an unknown, inexperienced commodity. I’m not saying people are wrong, but it does seem legitimately illogical. Can we at least agree on that?
3. The Oklahoma State game was Stoops’s best game of his career, until it wasn’t. The former walk-on now leads the Big 12 in receptions and is tied with Texas’s A.D. Mitchell for the touchdown lead. He is only 98 yards short of the Big 12 lead for receiving yards. The last time a Big 12 wide receiver accomplished the conference receiving triple crown was in 2007 when Michael Crabtree won his first Biletnikoff Award. Stoops has surged the last two weeks but the 10-reception, 164-yard, three-touchdown performance has put him in reach of something that Dede Westbrook, Ceedee Lamb, Corey Coleman, Justin Blackmon, James Washington, Tyler Lockett and others did not accomplish in their illustrious careers. I think we can put all of the “will Drake Stoops get drafted” questions to bed.
4. As long as we’re on the topic of guys who had their best game of the season against Oklahoma State and had an even better game against West Virginia, let’s talk about Sawchuk. The talented redshirt freshman finally got loose against the Pokes, but over half of his 111 yards game on one carry. Against West Virginia, Sawchuk averaged 6.1 yards per carry on a career-high 22 carries. His longest carry of the day was only 30 yards, but it shows how consistent he was with picking up chunk after chunk on the ground. He should buy McKade Mettauer and Jacob Sexton a cup of coffee or something because they opened up the right side of the line time and time again. It seems that the offensive line has strung together a nice stretch of games and have done so by leaning on youngsters like Sexton and Cayden Green. That’s a great sign for the future of the OL.
5. Danny Stutsman came back and COINCIDENTALLY the defense played their best game since the last time he was on the field. That whole side of the ball plays faster, more confident and more violent when he is out there. Danny led the team in tackles and tackles for loss, but outside of his own impressive production, his leadership and command might have made the biggest impact. With Kip Lewis’s emergence, and Jaren Kanak taking advantage of his off-the-bench role, this linebacking corps is SALTY when healthy. While many are wrapped up with whether Gabriel will return next season, I think Danny’s return is infinitely more important to the 2024 success of the Oklahoma football program. So remember, when writing those Christmas lists, make sure and include a Stutsman return somewhere near the top.
MEAL PREP
1. When the bettling line first dropped on this game, OU fans seemed worried. You can tell that there is a decent amount of Lincoln Riley PTSD that still needs more time to heal. The current line is OU -24.5. According to ScoresAndOdds, 92% of the money is currently on the Sooners to cover that big spread. Simply put, BYU is a bad football team right now. Iowa State and West Virginia both beat the Cougars by 30-plus points. Additionally, Oklahoma beat Iowa State and West Virginia by 30-plus points. BYU ranks dead last in the conference in scoring offense and total offense. They’re near the bottom of the conference in scoring defense and total defense. The only team that can beat Oklahoma on Saturday is the one wearing Crimson and White. If the Sooners play a clean game, they should win by multiple scores without having to be too spectacular.
2. Brigham Young head coach Kalani Sitake heaped praise on Oklahoma in his weekly press availability. He went through every single position group with words like “great," “physical," “strong" and “fantastic” before finally wrapping up the train of thought by calling Oklahoma a complete team. After that, he mentioned that this is the most difficult schedule in school history. Some might argue that next season might be the most difficult schedule in Oklahoma’s history. I find that juxtaposition interesting as he talks about keeping the fanbase energized while BYU tries to qualify for a bowl. The Cougars are 5-5 on the season. In a perfect Sooner world, they do indeed become bowl eligible but not until next week when they play the Pokes. If that happens and Oklahoma wins out, the Sooners would find themselves playing in Arlington.
3. Another thing that coach Sitake mentioned in his press conference was that Oklahoma “probably has the best linebacker in the country playing for them”. This marks the fourth or fifth time an opposing coach has singled out Stutsman in media availability. The linebacker depth that was developed while Stutsman was sidelined will be massive down the road, but specifically in this game. I’d imagine that Lewis starts alongside Danny, with Kobie McKinzie and Kanak coming off of the sideline early and often. This altitude will have its effects, and I believe we’ll be shown once again the glaring difference between this year’s linebacker depth and last year’s linebacker depth.
4. Kedon Slovis should return this week for the Cougars. He hasn’t played since a Texas blowout on October 28th. In that game he threw no touchdowns and two interceptions while throwing for less than 200 yards. The Sooners might actually enjoy seeing Slovis return to the backfield as he is a one-dimensional threat. His backup, Jake Retzlaff, at least gives BYU a running threat at the QB position. Last week Retzlaff led the team by a mile with 17 carries. But with the one-dimensional Slovis back in the fold, the Oklahoma defense can be a bit more exotic and aggressive without worrying about getting gashed.
5. After digging for BYU advantages in this matchup, there is only one aspect where the Cougars are significantly better than Oklahoma. The Cougars rank 29th nationally in penalties while the Sooners rank outside the Top 100. Against West Virginia the Sooners racked up five penalties for 60 yards. Oklahoma fans might forgive a chunk of those yards that came from Mettauer giving a West Virginia defender some extra love after an extra point. The defender hit Drake Stoops in the helmet on the previous touchdown and then stood over him in the end zone. Penalties did not cost them against the Mountaineers, but its something that simply has to be cleaned up if the coaching staff wants to preach discipline.
BYU SCORE PREDICTION
Each week we’ll see if anyone can nail the exact score. If you do, I’ll try and get Parker to send you a can of Olipop or something. (I have not discussed this with him, but I can at least try!)
No one hit the OSU score, so off we go!
My prediction:
OU 42
BYU 10
BOLD PREDICTIONS
Throughout the season we will do bold predictions for each game. I will start us off, and then I will ask the members to give me some bold predictions in the comments. From the member-produced predictions, I’ll add any that came true to the next article.
Most accurate member predictions last week:
@Hoodleehoo “We will have multiple runs over 20 yards (for the first time this season?)” — Three different players had runs over 20 yards. By the way, Tawee Walker and Sawchuk both had 20-yard runs against OSU. "I'll even go so far as to say Gibson will have multiple catches” — Nice late add!
@siderks1226 “Sawchuck for another 100+ yards, Gabriel 325+, and Stoops with 90+ yards” — Solid parlay here as each hit the over for you!
@TravisSkol “Danny is back and leads the team in TFL” — Danny got me back on the board! “Dillon does not turn the ball over” — You mean the offense didn’t turn the ball over and we won in a blowout? Wild.
@leswilson79 “Kanak breaks out of his slump and has a very good game” — Kanak had 5 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in a good bounce back off the bench. “Dillon has a 350-yard passing game” — 423 on the day! “We have a 100-yard rusher” — Sawchuk with ease.
“The defense causes 2 turnovers” — Freshmen Jacobe Johnson sealed this one late for you! A great week of guesses for you!
Here are my predictions for BYU:
1. Dillon Gabriel runs for two touchdowns. I feel like we’ll run the ball a ton in Provo and he likes to call his own number in the red zone.
2. Danny Stutsman 15 tackles. This game could be played in a phone booth and I think Danny has one of his best statistical games of the year.
3. Gavin Sawchuk gets the most first half carries and Tawee gets the most second half carries. This feels like the recipe for success to lean on tired defenders. Running this one back on the road.
Reminder: Please add your score prediction and bold predictions for the game.
Boomer Sooner!
Beat BYU!