Editor's note: This addition to OU Insider VIP is in Year 3 and is set to be the best series yet! Eachweek I put a bow on the previous game then transition to the upcoming game. Perusual, there will be “bold predictions” at the bottom and I implore you to add your own inthe message board replies.
Each year the comments immediate ask “Where are the recipes, Grill Boy??”. Well, thisyear I am giving you just that! Each week I will be filming a step-by-step tutorial on howto make a dish that coordinates with the opponent for that week. This will live on theOUInsider YouTube Channel.
AUBURN REVIEW
1. Last week I spilled a ton of ink about Jacobe Johnson and how his size and strength might factor into the Auburn game. Well, a big and strong receiver made a massive impact in the game on Saturday. In fact, this player had far and away their best game as a Sooner. Mr. Javian “J.J.” Hester made two key plays in the Sooner victory on his way to leading the team in receiving yards. In fact, he doubled up (86) the second leading pass-catcher (43) on only three catches. We all know about the dime that Hawkins dropped 58 yards in the air to JJ, but I want to talk about his other big play. About midway through the third quarter,Oklahoma was trailing 14-7 after being largely ineffective on offense after the first drive. They’d finally put something together when they had a 2nd and 8 at the Auburn 28. This put them within field goal range, but perhaps on the edge of comfortable field goal range. Then Jovantae Barnes starts falsely. Then Jaquaize Pettaway blocks someone in the back. After those penalties, Oklahoma is backed up to the Auburn 38, which would make a field goal try over “half a hundred” yards. But on 2nd and 18 Hawkins finds Hester on the sideline and he breaks tackles for the first down, which secured points on the drive. I think the bomb and that extra effort is what will ultimately build that ever-important trust between those two. JJ Hester could have a big 2024.
2. Speaking of penalties, I had far more issues with the discipline than I had with any of the playcalling. Did it feel like the offense struggled to get into a rhythm? Of course it did. Without counting false starts that help kill drives, these are the plays that got wiped out by penalties that would have directly led to points, in my opinion.
- Michael Hawkins Jr. to Bauer Sharp for 48 yards to the AUB 24 (punt)
- Michael Hawkins Jr. to Jovantae Barnes for a 2-yard touchdown (field goal)
- Gavin Sawchuk 16-yard run to the Auburn 15 (turnover on downs)
3. This is as far as I could get without initiating the love-fest for Michael Hawkins Jr. Many pundits questioned Oklahoma’s ability to win on the road with a first year starter at quarterback when they thought sophomore Jackson Arnold would be leading the way. But instead of the most highly decorated quarterback of the2023 recruiting cycle taking the reins into Auburn, Alabama, it was the stone-faced legacy that would etch his name into Sooner history. The first SEC win, the first SEC road win, and the first win of the Michael Hawkins Jr. era? That’s a day that no Oklahoma fan will soon forget. When Hawkins stepped up and took off for a 48-yard touchdown sprint, Sooner fans all thought the same thing: “We might blow them out." Now, it didn’t turn out that way, but the element that a dynamic player like Hawkins presents cannot be denied. Michael Hawkins Jr. has now completed the longest pass of the season and ran for the longest run of the season. He didn’t do this against Temple or hapless Houston. He did this on the road against Auburn. I’m not sure how much offensive momentum we’re taking out of that win, but I do know that there is no doubt whatsoever about who Oklahoma’s signal caller is for the next three years.
4. This is my official request for SOMEBODY on Oklahoma’s staff and/or team to hypnotize R Mason Thomas and convince him that the whole game is the 4th quarter. RMT is tied with South Carolina’s Kyle Kennard for the most sacks in the SEC this year. Their 5.5 sacks are good for fourth nationally. The crazy part? Only 0.5 of RMT’s sacks came outside of the 4th quarter. With 10:50 left in the 2nd quarter against Tennessee, Thomas combined with Da’Jon Terry to bringdown Nico Iamaleava. I have no clue what has contributed to this oddity. Is it that late in games teams face more predictable passing situations? That makes sense. Is it that RMT just has an insane motor and eventually breaks through? That tracks. Does Jerry Schmidt have these guys in good enough shape to simply outlast their opponents late in games? That’s believable, too. It’s most likely that all of those things are contributing to R Mason Thomas’s late game takeovers. Whatever it is, if it continues, RMT will find himself on All-SEC ballots at a minimum.
5. Auburn’s offense is much more explosive than their record and/or scoring ranks would indicate. As I type this they rank 8th in the nation in explosive plays. If they could ever figure out that they should not give the ball to their opponent, they could really put up some points. It may sound like some excuse making, but it shouldn’t have shocked anybody that Auburn hit on some explosive plays to some of their extremely talented receivers. That being said? I think it’s time to add Eli Bowen to the list of high-snap count true freshmen.
Through 5 games (per PFF):
- Highest defensive grade among all OU CB’s
- Highest coverage grade among all OU CB’s
Many thought Eli was only pursued to help Oklahoma’s courtship of older brother Peyton. What if Oklahoma only went after Peyton to help secure the commitment of Eli? I’m kidding. But it’s clear that Eli was more than just a sidecar carried by his brother’s engine. He’s a motorcycle, too.
TEXAS MEAL PREP
1. 14.5. That is how many points Texas is favored by at the time of this article. Nine out of the last ten meetings (where both had a quarterback) were decided by one score. Now, Vegas is full of smart people that do this for a living. But I think most of what they’re basing that number on is a Jackson Arnold-led offense. More accurately, Seth Littrell masquerading as Jeff Lebby calling Lebby’s offense for Jackson Arnold. I spoke with a P4 assistant coach after the Tulane game. He said “Seth isn’t calling his offense.” To qualify this unnamed coach, he has served on staff with Littrell during his career and defended against Littrell’s offense during his career. Needless to say, I trust his opinion. So, that means Texas probably has at least four games of worthless offensive tape to study. The only question is this: “Can Littrell install his offense on a bye week?”. I suppose we’ll see.
2. The recurring talking point with this rivalry has always been “whichever team runs the ball more effectively, that’s the team that will win.” I would like to submit "whichever team takes better care of the football will win" into the fold. Let’s keep it a buck. This Texas offense is more talented that any Oklahoma has seen. Oklahoma has not shown anything offensively that leads people to believe that they can win a shootout. That means they’re going to have to create turnovers to win this thing ugly. The good news? Oklahoma is far and away the SEC’s leader in turnover margin, where they are +8 on the season. There are only three teams in the SEC that have lost more turnovers than Texas. Texas has intercepted opposing quarterbacks seven times. So this game will likely come over to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. not making that Payton Thorne-esque type of mistake. From what we’ve seen so far (and in high school at Frisco Emerson), I trust the young signal caller to protect the ball. My prediction? Oklahoma wins the turnover battle by multiple turnovers.
3. 3. Can we talk about the offensive line? By my count there have been EIGHT different combinations of offensive line units this season. I’ve listed them chronologically.
Sexton/Hatchett/Hickman/Nwaiwu/Tarquin
Tarquin/Sexton/Hatchett/Nwaiwu/Brown
Howland/Sexton/Bates/Nwaiwu/Brown
Tarquin/Sexton/Bates/Nwaiwu/Taylor
Howland/Sexton/Bates/Nwaiwu/Tarquin
Sexton/Ozaeta/Bates/Nwaiwu/Tarquin
Sexton/Ozaeta/Hickman/Nwaiwu/Tarquin
Tarquin/Sexton/Hickman/Nwaiwu/Taylor
That’s truly insane. For some perspective on this, let's look at an October 7th tweet from OL Masterminds’s Duke Manyweather (@BigDuke50). “You guys aren’t going to want to hear this, but it can take anywhere from 6-10games for an OL unit, with new pieces to find its cohesion through continuity.”
That’s the bad news. The good news? I thought the offensive line played decently well against Auburn. Some of that might be defensive adjustments toMichael Hawkins Jr.’s wheels. But I think when Michael looked at film following the game he’ll see that he occasionally left the pocket or let it fly before the pressure deemed it necessary. Now, I would rather have a quarterback that leaves the pocket on the early side as opposed to on the late side, but I do think there is time to find that sweet spot. Of the six players on the Longhorn roster to record a sack this season, five of them are listed as linebackers. They have a total of one sack from a defensive lineman this season. This is not theMurphy/Sweat combo from a season ago.
4. In last year’s Red River Shootout, Dillon Gabriel led the Sooners in rushing. He carried the ball 14 times for 113 yards. His legs came in clutch many times during his short Oklahoma stint, but it truly felt like Texas’s kryptonite at times. Due to lack of consistent health at the running back position last year, Oklahoma used Gabriel to breathe life into a run game on life support. This year they may have to do the same. Michael Hawkins Jr. showed the Auburn secondary that he can run away from anyone if given a bit of daylight. It’s unfortunate that the same cannot be said for the running backs right now. Hawkins’s 48 yard sprint was the longest run of the season, despite many opportunities for running backs against lesser opponents earlier in the schedule. After one of the worst rushing performances in Oklahoma history against Tennessee, the Sooners rushed for 130 yards on 32 carries. They nearly quadrupled their yards per carry figure.J ovantae Barnes and Hawkins were the only Sooners that logged carries, as Gavin Sawchuk’s lone burst was called back due to penalty. Oklahoma will need all hands on deck against the Longhorns. A healthy Taylor Tatum could be just what the doctor ordered. Gavin Sawchuk finding holes against a run defense that relies on linebackers over defensive line play. Jovantae continuing to make something out of nothing. Call me a sunshine pumper, but I’m not giving up on this Oklahoma run game just yet.
5. Outside of turning the Longhorns over repeatedly, Oklahoma will have to lean on its greatest strength: run defense. The following are the yards per carry numbers for each game this season.
Temple: 1.9
Houston: 1.7
Tulane: 3.1
Tennessee: 2.9
Auburn: 3.3
That’s good for a nation’s-8th-best 2.6 yards per carry. Texas is currently 34th in the country in yards per carry offensively. They are decimated in the running back room after season-ending injuries to RB1 CJ Baxter and talented true freshman Christian Clark. They will likely lean on Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue in Dallas. Jaydon Blue was benched due to fumbles against Mississippi State. He fumbled to start the second half and did not see the field again. Tre Wisner and true freshman Jerrick Gibson handled the rushing workload after that. It will be interesting to see if Blue comes out of the doghouse to face one of the nation’s best run defenses that also forces a ton of turnovers.
TEXAS SCORE PREDICTION
Each week we’ll see if anyone can nail the exact score. If you do, I’ll try and get Parker to send you some mens skincare product or something. (I have not discussed this with him, but I can at least try!)
My prediction:
OU 24
Texas 23
BOLD PREDICTIONS
Throughout the season we will do bold predictions for each game. I will start us off, and then Iwill ask the members to give me some bold predictions in the comments. From the member-produced predictions, I’ll add any that came true to the next article.
Best predictions from last week:
@leswilson79 - “Defense Scores” - Kip Six cashed this one!
@ChiefGelanta - “MHJ is leading rusher” - 69 nice yards led the team!
@MattDJ2002 - “A 50+ yard play” - JJ Hester 60 yards reception!
- “Zach Schmit redemption game” - two CLUTCH field goals.-
“Eli Bowen breakout game” - 6 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards. BREAKOUT.
@CasonH - feeling generous with this one “two 65+ rushers” Hawkins and Barnes averaged exactly 65 yards between them. So I’ll allow it.
My predictions for Texas:
1. Oklahoma gives up less than 3 sacks. Texas doesn’t generate a ton of pressure from thei rDL, and rely on the LB’s to create plays. I think Hawkins gets loose and avoids a few blitzes.
2. Oklahoma holds Texas under 3.0 YPC. This would be a full two yards below their season average.