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Published Jan 8, 2024
Revisiting preseason predictions for OU's 2023 campaign
Jesse Crittenden  •  OUInsider
Beat Writer
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@jessecrittenden
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It was difficult to know what to expect from Oklahoma in the 2023 season. The Sooners were coming off a disappointing, and surprising, 6-7 finish in 2022, though they had done well enough to add reinforcements via the transfer portal and high school recruiting.

I tried my best to figure it out.

I made preseason predictions in three different articles; some in a column back in May; others in an August column; and the final predictions came in a mailbag the week of the season opener against Arkansas State.

With the Sooners' 2023 season officially over, I figured it'd be fun to revisit my preseason predictions and see how I did. Plus, it adds a little bit of weight to making predictions if there's some accountability.

Let's dive in.

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Prediction: The Sooners will finish with a 10-3 record

I hedged my bets a little and didn't realize it.

In the May column I predicted the Sooners would finish 10-3, indicating they would improve on 2022 but narrowly miss the Big 12 title game. But in the August column and September mailbag, I said the Sooners would finish the regular season 10-2 and make the conference championship game.

Of course, we now know the Sooners finished 10-3 and missed their final opportunity at a Big 12 title game.

So while I did correctly predict the Sooners' overall record and regular-season record in separate places, I am docked points for the lack of a Big 12 title appearance. This is also a lesson in the need to be both consistent and more specific.

Verdict: 78% correct

Prediction: The offense finishes second in the Big 12 in scoring, 10th nationally in total offense

While I did predict the OU offense would be better in 2023, I ended up selling the Sooners short. OU finished first in the Big 12 in scoring (41.7 points per game) — nearly 10 more points per game compared to 2022 — and third nationally in total offense (507 yards per game).

Verdict: 60% correct

Prediction: Oklahoma finishes 50th nationally in total defense, 45th in scoring defense

In 2022, the Sooners finished 99th in scoring defense (30 points allowed per game) and 122nd in total defense (461 yards allowed per game). Heading into the season, I figured the defense would significantly improve but be short of elite.

For the most part, that's what happened. The Sooners finished 49th in scoring defense (23.5 points per game) and 80th in total defense (389.4 yards per game).

Those numbers likely would've been even better had they not surrendered 24 points and 390 yards to BYU, and 45 points and 520 yards to TCU.

But I digress. I wasn't super close on the total defense metric, but I'm giving myself credit for being just four spots away on scoring defense.

Verdict: 60% correct

Prediction: Peyton Bowen plays over 450 snaps

The main purpose of this prediction was to illustrate that Bowen was going to play a big right away, particularly compared to most freshmen.

I wasn't quite right on the number of snaps, but Bowen did play a big role. The true freshman played 363 snaps, the 13th-most on the defense. The next closest freshman? PJ Adebawore with 184 snaps.

Bowen played 24 snaps or more in eight of the Sooners' 13 games. He likely would've been closer to 450 snaps had he not struggled with injuries during conference play. For example, he played just 24 total snaps in a three-week span that included UCF, Kansas and Oklahoma State (it doesn't seem like a big coincidence that the Sooners' lost two of those games and only beat UCF by two).

Assuming health, it wouldn't be shocking to see Bowen play close to 600 snaps next season.

Verdict: 50% correct

Jalil Farooq records at least 50 receptions

This seemed pretty reasonable to me. Marvin Mims led the 2022 team with 54 receptions, and he was leaving. Farooq seemed to be the natural successor.

Farooq did finish with 45 receptions for 694 yards. But he wasn't the leading receiver like I thought he'd be. That honor belonged to Drake Stoops, who exploded for 84 receptions, 962 yards and 10 touchdowns. Nic Anderson finished second in receiving yards (798) on 38 receptions.

It wasn't a bad season for Farooq. He finished second in receptions and third in yards. But he didn't score a touchdown after Week 3, and there were games where he was barely involved in the offense. Fumbles were an issue, too.

Verdict: Not my best prediction

Prediction: Da'Jon Terry leads the Sooners in sacks

Considering he only played 306 snaps, Terry (18 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1 sack) had a good season. But the sack leader was Ethan Downs, who finished with 4.5.

Wasn't my best prediction, but I felt like going out on a limb.

Verdict: Good season for Downs, not a good prediction for me

Prediction: Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes each finish with at least 750 rushing yards

I honestly felt this was a safe prediction when I made it. Barnes and Sawchuk were primed to lead the backfield.

However, Barnes never fully looked recovered after undergoing foot surgery in the fall. He logged just 37 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown. He only played 94 snaps, including just 10 over the final five games. Instead, it was Tawee Walker who emerged as the backfield leader through the first few games.

It took awhile for Sawchuk to get going, but he exploded over the final few weeks. He started the last seven games and finished the year with five-straight performances of over 1,000 yards while averaging at least 5.9 yards per carry.

Sawchuk finished with 744 yards and nine touchdowns on 120 carries, falling just short of my yardage prediction. But I'm going to give myself half-credit, considering Sawchuk's last few performances put him on pace for well-over 1,000 yards over a full season.

Prediction: 40% correct