Ranking OU's 2023 opponents: What should the Sooners expect from UCF?

Editor’s note: This is part eight in a series previewing each of the Sooners’ opponents in 2023. OUInsider will rank all 12 games by their significance, difficulty and entertainment value on a 1-10 scale. The previous installments focused on Arkansas State, Tulsa, Iowa State, West Virginia, SMU, Kansas and Cincinnati. This article previews UCF, which is ranked No. 5.

In Week 8, Oklahoma will welcome a UCF team they’ve never hosted in Norman. In fact, the two teams have never played each other.

But there are a couple of Sooners who have plenty of familiarity with UCF.

That includes starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who played three seasons with the Knights before transferring to Norman in 2022. OU offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby also spent a couple of seasons with the Knights as an offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, and he coached Gabriel in 2019.

Needless to say, it’ll be a bit of a reunion for Gabriel and Lebby. But how the two teams matchup on the field is the bigger question.

The Knights are a few years removed from their 2017 campaign, when they finished 13-0 with a Peach Bowl win and a No. 6 ranking in the final College Football Playoff Poll. In the past three seasons, the Knights have posted a combined record of 24-13, including 9-5 in 2022.

The Knights’ 2023 recruiting class, consisting of 15 players, is ranked 50th nationally by Rivals. They also added 18 players via the transfer portal, including former OU defensive tackle Derrick LeBlanc.

Here’s an overview of UCF and what the Sooners can expect in 2023:

Significance: 8/10

Difficulty: 7/10

Entertainment value: 8/10

Total score: 23/30

* Obviously what happens on the field is most important, but it’s hard to ignore the storylines coming into the game, and there’s several to pick from. Is it an emotional game for Gabriel and Lebby? How does UCF fare in its first Big 12 season? Will Owen Field be particularly enthusiastic facing a conference opponent the Sooners have never played before?

But on the field, this should be a compelling game. The Sooners — barring a collapse in the first half of the season — will be favored, but UCF has finished with six straight winning seasons and should be able to put up a fight.

2022 stats

Offense: 32.9 points per game (31st nationally)

Defense: 23.6 points allowed (46th nationally)

Key departures (2022 stats):

RB Isaiah Bowser (*205 carries, 799 yards, *16 TDs)

WR Ryan O’Keefe (*73 catches, 725 yards, 5 TDs)

Key returners (2022 stats):

QB John Rhys Plumlee (*2,586 passing yards, 63% completion, *14 TDs, 8 INTs)

RB R.J. Harvey (118 attempts, 796 yards, 5 TDs)

WR Javon Baker (56 catches, *796 yards, 5 TDs)

WR Kobe Hudson (39 catches, 641 yards, *7 TDs)

LB Jason Johnson (*126 tackles, 4 TFLs, 1 sack)

DL Tre’mon Morris-Brash (52 tackles, *13 TFLs, *6 sacks)

DL Josh Celisar (54 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 sacks)

DL Rick Barber (49 tackles, 9 TFLs, 3 sacks)

* led team

Key additions:

DL Derrick LeBlanc, Oklahoma: The former 2023 four-star prospect spent one semester in Norman before announcing he would transfer to UCF.

LB Rian Davis, Georgia: The former four-star prospect played in 23 games over four seasons with the Bulldogs, totaling 17 tackles.

OL Amari Kight, Alabama: A consensus four-star tackle in 2019, Kight spent four seasons with the Crimson Tide. He appeared in 12 games last season.

CB Fred Davis II, Clemson: Davis spent two seasons with the Tigers, totaling 32 tackles, four pass breakups and a fumble recovery in 27 games.

Can Guz Malzahn lead UCF to a successful debut season in the Big 12: After eight seasons at Auburn, which included a national championship in 2010, Malzahn was hired by UCF before the 2021 season.

It’s been a mixed bag for Malzahn. He has led UCF to two nine-win seasons, but they lost some disappointing games in 2022. Their five losses came against Louisville, Duke, Tulane, Navy and East Carolina.

Another nine-win campaign could be difficult for the Knights in their first Big 12 season. However, they do return multiple key players from last year’s squad, including most of the skill positions on an offense that averaged nearly 33 points per game. Their home slate (Kent State, Villanova, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Houston) isn’t too bad, either.

The Knights’ recipe for a solid 2023 campaign? Play well at home, and snag a couple road games.

* More than a reunion for Gabriel: Of course, this game may have a special meaning for Gabriel. But the Sooners will need a solid performance from their starting quarterback.

The Knights surrendered just under 24 points per game in 2022, but they gave up several big performances. They surrendered 30 points to Duke, 45 to Tulane, 39 to South Florida and 34 to East Carolina. They also ranked 59th in passing defense, giving up about 223 yards per game.

At home, against a defense that shouldn’t be too stingy, Gabriel shouldn’t have many issues finding success against his former team.

UCF enters the Big 12 as one of the more successful Group of Five teams of the past few seasons. Plus, they’ve retained a lot of key players on both sides of the ball.

The Sooners get Texas at the Cotton Bowl and then a bye week before matching up with the Knights in Norman. They should be well rested and well motivated heading into the second half of the season. UCF could put up some points, but Gabriel and the offense should have no issues leading the Sooners to a win.