Ranking OU's 2023 opponents: Is TCU the most confusing Big 12 team?

Editor’s note: This is part seven in a series previewing each of the Sooners’ opponents in 2023. OUInsider will rank all 12 games by their significance, difficulty and entertainment value on a 1-10 scale. The previous installments focused on Arkansas State, Tulsa, Iowa State, West Virginia, SMU, Kansas, Cincinnati, UCF and BYU. This installment focuses on TCU, which is ranked No. 3.

After four consecutive mediocre seasons, TCU had an unexpected rise to the top of college football.

The Horned Frogs finished with a 13-2 record, which included berths in both the Big 12 title game and the College Football Playoff. They even defeated Michigan in the CFP semifinal before being routed by Georgia in the championship game, finishing just one win short of a national title. It was a shocking turnaround under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, especially considering the Horned Frogs hadn’t won more than seven games in any of the previous four seasons.

However, the Horned Frogs aren’t expected to make another championship run in 2023. They finished fifth in the Big 12 preseason poll on Thursday, ranking behind Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They received three of the 67 possible first-place votes.

There’s a lot of reasons for that. One, the Horned Frogs lost several key contributors on both sides of the ball. Two, there’s certainly been skepticism about whether the Horned Frog’s 2022 campaign is replicable. Three, there are several Big 12 teams that are expected to take a step forward in 2023.

But if Dykes has proven anything, it’s that he knows how to get his team ready to play.

On Nov. 24 — the final week of the regular season — the Sooners will have a chance to avenge last season’s loss to TCU. Here’s an overview of the Horned Frogs and what the Sooners can expect in 2023:

Significance: 9/10

Difficulty: 7/10

Entertainment value: 8/10

Total score: 24/30

* The Sooners simply couldn’t compete against the Horned Frogs last season, losing 55-24 in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 34-10 lead before OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel was injured in the second quarter, eliminating any chance of a Sooner comeback.

This year, things should be different. The Horned Frogs likely won’t be the juggernaut they were last season, and the Sooners should be better. Plus, the Sooners will be at home, the game is on the final day of the regular season and they’ll certainly be motivated for payback. As of now, everything is tilting in OU’s favor.

OU leads 17-6 all-time

2022 stats

Offense: 38.8 points per game (9th nationally)

Defense: 29.0 points allowed (91st nationally)

Key departures (2022 stats):

QB Max Duggan (*4,121 total yards, 63.7% completion, *41 total TDs)

RB Kendre Miller (*224 carries, *1,399 yards, *17 TDs)

RB Emari Demecardo (121 carries, 681 carries, 7 total TDs)

WR Quentin Johnston (*60 receptions, *1,069 yards, *6 TDs)

WR Derius Davis (42 receptions, 531 yards, 5 TDs)

DL Dee Winters (79 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks)

DL Dylan Horton (51 tackles, *15 TFLs, *10.5 sacks)

Key returners (2022 stats):

QB Chandler Morris (145 passing yards, 1 TD)

WR Savion Williams (29 receptions, 392 yards, 4 TDs)

LB Johnny Hodges (*87 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 2 sacks)

LB Jamoi Hodge (82 tackles, 7 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT)

* led team

Key additions:

* Cordale Russell, WR, 2023 four-star

* Channing Canada, CB, 2023 four-star

* Trey Sanders, RB, Alabama: The former five-star prospect spent four seasons with the Crimson Tide, but injuries have derailed much of his career.

* JoJo Earle, WR, Alabama: The former consensus four-star wide receiver made five starts last season for the Crimson Tide, finishing with 12 catches for 155 yards and two scores.

Can TCU again defy expectations?: Heading into 2022, nobody projected the Horned Frogs as a championship contender. After finishing 5-7 in 2021, they were seventh in last year’s preseason poll.

But still, they finished with the most successful season of any Big 12 team in the CFP era. One big factor was the unexpected play of Duggan, who started the season as the backup quarterback before Morris was injured. The Horned Frogs also had a knack for winning close games, winning six games by single digits.

Without Duggan, Johnston and Miller, the Horned Frogs will be relying on a lot of new faces on offense. Morris, a former OU quarterback, will likely get another chance as the starting quarterback, and the former three-star prospect certainly has the tools to lead a successful offense.

But the defense is the bigger concern. Last season’s offense was the main proponent for the Horned Frogs’ success, and if the offense takes a step back this fall, it could be difficult for them to stay competitive.

Could a win over TCU propel the Sooners to the postseason?: By the time the Sooners face the Horned Frogs in November, their resume will likely be set.

The Sooners’ chances of winning the Big 12 title, or clinching a spot in a top-tier bowl game, had already faded by the end of last season. But considering the Sooners finished third in Thursday’s preseason poll, many expect the Sooners to bounce back and be in contention for a Big 12 title this season.

If the Sooners can take care of business in their first 11 games, their regular-season finale against TCU could become arguably the most important game of the season. If not, the Sooners could just be looking to end their regular season with some momentum.

Can football season hurry up and get here?

It’s hard to know what to expect from TCU in 2023. Dykes is tasked with replacing key players on both sides of the ball, and the Horned Frogs caught a few lucky bounces in 2022. Regardless, it’d be foolish to count TCU out before the season begins.

For the Sooners, the motivation to beat TCU couldn’t be higher. They’ll be at home in what could be a must-win game. But there’s a lot of football to be played between now and then.